Lets Have A Drink (new York)

Only 0.5% of U.S. land works for large-scale data center development.On this episode of First Draft Live, Tract President and Tract Capital managing director Graham Williams, whose firm is behind some of the biggest data center developments in the country, breaks down why power, water, a shrinking skilled workforce and rising regulation and public backlash are making viable sites surprisingly difficult to find. 

Multifamily is under pressure from every direction, and yet it is still expected to fix America's housing crisis.A record wave of new supply has hit the market, pushing vacancy higher and rent growth flat or negative in several Sun Belt metros. At the same time, Washington is turning up the heat, with voices like Sen. Elizabeth Warren targeting institutional ownership and the Federal Trade Commission applying new scrutiny to rental fees.But with the bulk of the supply tsunami behind us, could 2026 be the turnaround year? Or will it be just another step in a longer reset? On this episode of First Draft Live, Bisnow sits down with Bob Hart, president and CEO of TruAmerica Multifamily, to break down where the market actually stands, where capital is flowing and how investors are making the math work in a sector caught between rising pressure and uncertain recovery.

This was supposed to be commercial real estate’s year. The industry entered 2026 expecting interest rates to fall, liquidity to rise, and for long-stalled transactions to finally put the pedal to the metal. For a while, it seemed as though CRE would finally be experiencing a true recovery from the massive hit it took during the pandemic.But today, things are looking a little shakier. Global instability surrounding the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated tariff and trade tensions. Meanwhile, $1.2T in real estate loans are expected to mature by 2027, a significant amount of which were originated when borrowing costs were much lower.On this episode, Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, one of the most active private credit platforms in CRE, breaks down the impacts as it stands today.

This episode of First Draft Live is presented by Agora.The meteoric rise of artificial intelligence has impacted every industry, including the notoriously tech-adverse commercial real estate world.Scores of new AI-driven tools have left brokers sweating over their commissions and wondering if they will be replaced by software that can automate underwriting and surface buyers instantly. And shareholders have been ditching their brokerage stock over concerns the entire business model is at risk. Are their fears overblown, or should brokers be preparing themselves for a future where AI could take their jobs?Both can be true, Kyle Matthews, CEO of Matthews CRE, said on this week’s episode.“I absolutely think there is an overreaction happening,” Matthews said. “And I think there are 100% vulnerabilities, and the nature and the shape of how these services are performed in the next three, five and 10 years, fundamentally, will change.”

This episode is presented by Agora.The federal government is poised to enact legislation to make housing development easier.But federal desire does not always translate to local action — and that is where construction actually happens, said Continental Properties Chairman and CEO James Schloemer, who just concluded a two-year term as chairman of the National Multifamily Housing Council.“There are a lot of issues at the local level,” he said. “Between NIMBYs, ... issues regarding building codes and being [too] short-staffed to expedite the necessary permitting and inspections, there are a lot of challenges not correlated to things that the federal government influences.”

This episode of First Draft Live is presented by Agora.Venezuela, Greenland, Canada’s prime minister calling the death of America as global leader. Interest rate watching, Fed independence under question, tariffs.There’s a lot of noise out there in the macroeconomy that can make it hard for CRE to tune into a good deal.And yet Abbe Franchot Borok, BGO managing director and head of U.S. debt, said she is optimistic the year ahead will be a good one for property investment.Sure, it has gotten more complicated and the industry has had to turn to new inputs and data sources. The normal supply vs. demand dynamic is changing as consumer use of commercial real estate has shifted.And yes, she said, Canadian and European investors are not liking what they are seeing out of the U.S. government.But the U.S. continues to be the most liquid and active market in the world, and she doesn’t see a sustained lack of investment in the cards. Good deals are out there for those willing to double down on income generation and exec

2025 was a noisy year.Policy changes, interest rate adjustments and geopolitical roller coasters kept CRE on their toes.With financing loosening up and transactions picking up, the groundwork is being laid for a better 2026, but where is a safe investment in a world where fundamentals seem to be shifting?CBRE Global Client Strategist and Senior Economic Advisor Spencer Levy said he advises his clients to wade through the noise and look at the drivers in New York, San Francisco, Dallas, Miami and the Midwest to really see what’s on the horizon for CRE. These include the reshoring of manufacturing and the train from Mexico to Canada, which carries nearly $2T in trade each year.“You follow that durable demand driver, that infrastructure, despite some of the tariff noise, despite some of the trade noise, despite some of the political changes — that’s the time to find opportunity,” Levy said.

This holiday season is one filled with contradictions for retail real estate. Consumer confidence has plummeted, but their spending is at all-time highs. Leasing is bustling and vacancy is tight, but store closures are outpacing openings.On this episode, Northwood Retail President Ward Kampf joins the show to unpack the uncertainty surrounding the asset class, which has also been deeply impact by tariffs, artificial intelligence and vast changes in behavior between generations.“Young kids today, they eat different and don’t drink as much as we did when we were young,” he said on the show. “They are much healthier than we were. We ate whatever we wanted and drank a lot.”Kampf also discusses what is expected to be a bumpy 2026, predicting even more closures, potential drugstore bankruptcy and backlash to $20 salads and burritos.“The key word going forward, doesn’t matter your political slant, right or left, is affordability,” he said. “People are really conscious of that.”

2025 has not gone according to plan.Real estate has been bandied about by headwinds of economic, policy and fundamental changes. Interest rate reductions and rising deal flow has the industry feeling better, but stability is a pipe dream these days, especially when federal data is missing and CRE research can conflict.But forget about the data, economist Peter Linneman said on this week’s show — how is it really going in your apartments or your office building?He said CRE has gotten hooked on data analysis and has forgotten that what really matters are the fundamentals on the ground.And while he agrees that uncertainty is the new normal, and that’s trouble for CRE, “people adjust.”He foresees a meaningful return to transactions in 2026.“There are people out there with courage, but they don’t have capital. And there are others out there whose short investment horizons have made them understandably and correctly not courageous,” he said.“But when everybody else starts jumping, it’ll be like the wildebeests cros

While the longest government shutdown in U.S. history may be over, the commercial real estate industry will be feeling its impact for some time. From HUD halting originations and approvals to hotel demand drying up and data going away, the pain has been widespread.And it will continue to impact underwriting and kill deals, especially in the multifamily realm, Origin Investments co-CEO Michael Episcope said.Roughly 2,000 multifamily starts were delayed as HUD went dark, he said. That doesn’t get resolved immediately and will impact rent growth.“You have to assume that there’s going to be lower demand as a result of this government shutdown,” Episcope said on this week’s show.

The U.S. office market is molting. The industry has spent the last five years shedding its old skin — and underperforming assets — and is attempting to emerge fresh and appealing to workers.Return-to-office mandates are helping bring workers back to their desks, and vacancy just ticked down for the first time since 2019. But few mandates come with teeth, meaning how many employees actually show up on any given day still comes down to how many want to, CBRE Building Operations and Experience CEO Jamie Hodari, who also co-founded and still runs Industrious, said on this week’s show. And while ping pong tables and pizza parties can help bring a space to life, he said he judges the success of the office based on whether people have their heads up talking to each other.“If people are interacting with each other, if people are learning from each other, I don’t care what the lighting is,” he said. “I don’t care if the windows are 13 feet or 10 feet or whatever, that’s a commute-worthy office.”

After years of cautious experimentation, CRE’s biggest players are finally scaling artificial intelligence.JLL has been at the forefront of it, launching an in-house AI platform called Falcon that is cutting deal timelines from weeks to hours and automating the drudgery that once bogged down teams. The result is higher revenue per head, higher success rates when pitching and faster closings.On this week’s show, CEO Christian Ulbrich gave a peek under the hood of how JLL is getting the most out of AI and how he sees it reshaping the industry.It’s difficult to get an edge from AI, he said. Tools that drive productivity become table stakes within six months. The real differentiation only comes from new-to-market strategy, agentic AI that reinvents parts of CRE deal-making.Still, the industry must act.“Don’t wait too long,” he said. “The train has left the station and it is going at Japanese speed levels of train — very very fast.”

Live from the CREtech main stage at New York’s Javits Center on October 21, WeWork CEO John Santora sat down with Bisnow Editor-in-Chief Mark Bonner to unpack one of CRE’s biggest comebacks — from bankruptcy to EBITDA positive, $2.2B in revenue and 550K members, including 47 of the Fortune 100. Occupancy has surged past 90% in Midtown Manhattan and hit 100% in key global markets.This conversation dropped 24 hours early — in video form — for First Draft Insider Access subscribers. That's our daily briefing for people who want to see what's next in commercial real estate before everyone else. You can join them now for $9 per month at bisnow.com/firstdraft.

The optimism that permeated commercial real estate at the start of 2025 has died down as the year has gone on.That's the headline from Deloitte's annual CRE executive survey, but Deloitte partner Sally Ann Flood said on this week's episode that the responses showed an increasingly bifurcated market. Some asset classes, like data centers and warehouses, are "red hot," while investors are still grappling with distress in office and multifamily.But Flood said the most important theme to come out of this year's survey is the technological inflection point the industry has reached.“The technology revolution is here for real estate. I really believe this is the time that we can embrace it and really see improvements to the bottom line by adopting the technology.”From companies embracing AI to digitize leases, partnerships between big tech, real estate companies and energy providers and increased operational efficiency, Flood says this is the year the notoriously tech-averse industry leaps into the digital age.

The AI trade is reshaping markets and CRE is riding shotgun.A surge of capital into chips and data centers has turned AI into the backbone of U.S. growth — pushing tech spending to dot-com-era highs and doubling data center pipelines.But will it pay off? Alarm bells are ringing that adoption may not match optimism. That could quickly mean swathes of massive data centers sitting vacant.Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, sees the opposite problem. On this week’s episode, he said adoption curves are running much closer to forecasts.His concern: CRE can’t keep up.“All the limits are on the supply side,” he said. “On the demand side it feels limitless.”

The starting gun has gone off: The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates 25 basis points. Now CRE can be off to the races.At least that’s the narrative.In practice, CRE cares more about long-term debt, and the 10-year Treasury ran counter to expectations and actually rose 10 bps, Jim Costello, MSCI’s director of real estate economics, said on this week’s show. Besides, the industry’s problems go far beyond interest rates, and 25 bps isn’t large enough to make much difference.“If you want to be successful in CRE, it’s not about that home run of capital market forces lifting the value tremendously,” Costello said. “It’s going to be a lot of singles and doubles.”That means a focus on proper leasing, getting the right broker, careful analysis of tenants and focusing on operating expenses.How about all that money waiting on the sidelines — will that finally loosen up with the drop in rates?“Here’s the thing about dry powder: When you get a little wind, it can blow it away,” Costello said.“If you don’t have a situ

It’s a high-pressure year for multifamily. Looming maturities, tough capital markets, changing policies, a major shake-up of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the horizon and intensified national attention are all converging to complicate the sector.But multifamily fundamentals are strong, Sharon Karaffa, president of multifamily debt and structured finance at Newmark, said on this week’s episode.“Absorption has been very high and vacancies are very low. Most of the supply wave is behind us,” she said. “So we think we’re on the upswing.”The ending of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could disrupt the market, depending on how exactly it happens.Karaffa said it is critical that the privatized organizations have a line to the Treasury to maintain affordability, that a strict regulatory framework is put in place to avoid the mess of the Global Financial Crisis and that the agencies are not combined — the market needs both to keep competition alive.

Global bond markets are under siege and CRE is caught in the crossfire.UK 30-year gilt yields surged to their highest level since 1998, and volatility in U.S. Treasuries has repeatedly brushed them against 5%.For commercial real estate, that means more expensive debt, climbing cap rates and global investors second-guessing allocations.Christopher Stanley, banking industry practice lead at Moody’s Analytics, said the tightness of the spread shows increased competition in the market, but the entire yield curve has moved up considerably.That’s going to hit net operating income, and Stanley said staying on top of liquidity and forecasting out volatility all the way through the life cycle of the project have become crucial.“When we’re in a nervous economy like we’re in right now, everyone immediately jumps to what kind of credit problems are there going to be,” Stanley said on the show. “Credit is a part of it, but we’re really playing a balance sheet management game.”

This episode of First Draft Live is presented by Agora.The godfather of the CMBS market issued a warning that commercial real estate is not out of the woods of its downturn, which is a potential problem for the U.S. economy. “The losses in CRE are so big that the rippling effect of those losses to the economy are so big that they could be quite harmful,” Ethan Penner, the founder of Mosaic Real Estate Investors, said on this week’s First Draft Live.Roughly $23B of CMBS loans have matured without a resolution, and more than 10% are delinquent or in special servicing. Yet the CMBS lending market is roaring, with $60B in new debt issued in just the first six months of this year.“The truth is there are massive, massive losses in real estate,” said Penner, who is credited with inventing the commercial mortgage-backed security in the early 1990s. “These are breathtaking losses, and I think that clearly the system hasn’t recognized that on any level.”Penner also spoke about his candidacy for the California governor’

This episode of First Draft Live is presented by Agora.It’s been a chaotic year for the construction industry. Between a volatile tariff regime, elevated interest rates and increased pressures on its labor force, contractors have had to navigate one of the most difficult environments in recent memory. On this week’s First Draft Live, Shawmut Design and Construction CEO Les Hiscoe breaks down the impacts of the uncertainty and how his $2B Boston-based company is handling the turmoil. “When things aren’t known and you can’t really plan on them in our industry, you can’t give our clients predictability,” he said on the show.While many developers are responding to the moment by delaying projects — Hiscoe said one of his clients won’t start building until interest rates fall a full percentage point — Shawmut is advising them against it as the impacts of tariffs have yet to fully be realized.“Waiting is a mistake,” he said.Register on Bisnow.com to join next Friday's conversation live, or check back here for the co