Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

In the February 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido chat about what's been going on in the Southwest over the past few months, since we last recorded a podcast.  In terms of precipitation, the answer is not much, unless the day in question is also a podcast day - the weather has an odd - but welcome - habit of raining on days we record the podcast.  In terms of temperature, the record to near record heat remains a key part of the winter story. Specifically, Mike and Zack discuss the conditions of the past 1-3 months, focusing on the overall lack of precipitation in the Southwest, meager snowpack, above average temperatures, and impacts associated with warmer and drier than average winters, including an early start to fire season in Arizona. They also discuss the atmospheric patterns that have led to the elevated temperatures and lack of precipitation in the SW, and what changed in the past week that brought much needed moisture and cooler conditions to parts of

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the regional temperature and precip of the past 30-90 days, including the mostly above average temperatures, the very dry conditions, and the recent precipitation event that hit parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. They also discuss the California wildfires in the context of the Santa Ana winds, years of persistent drought, and the convergence of conditions that set the stage for the current crisis in California - with an eye towards what conditions in Arizona and New Mexico look like for this coming fire season. They wrap up with a discussion of – you guessed it – La Niña, including connecting the current conditions to the larger arc of persistent drought, seasonal fire risk, and what we might expect looking forward (including a friendly wager on guesses for cool season precip). Materials Discussed in this episode:

In the Nov 2017 episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discussion temperature and precipitation in the Southwest over the past month or so, and the discrepancy between Arizona and New Mexico re: precipitation.  They also dive into ENSO and the emergent (weak) La Niña conditions, and what this might mean, taking a close look at last year (another weak La NIña) and other weak La NIña events of the past decades. They wrap up with a quick summary of the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon that wasn't, then very much so was, and then wasn't again (at least in Arizona), as well as the late season surge over in New Mexico.  They discuss the mechanisms that helped push the monsoon to near record levels in July, but helped facilitate a shut down for most of August and nearly all of September.  They also discuss "the bet".  Next month the discussion will return to ENSO, drought, and upcoming forecasts for fall/winter in the SW, but for now, it's all monsoon, all the time.

In the August edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss how much has changed since the last podcast (Jul 12), which ended up being one of the first days in an impressive string of sustained monsoon precipitation events across the Southwest - and in much of southern Arizona in particular.  In the podcast - Mike and Zack recap the monsoon performance and statistics to date, they give an overview of the atmospheric patterns that led to the extended run of monsoon precipitation, and they daydream a bit about how close this year could come to monsoon records (if it stays on the current trajectory). Note: This podcast was recorded on Aug 9th, just before the next wave of monsoon activity fired up in southern Arizona.

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss Southwestern weather & climate, including: The extended heat wave of June 2017 (and the near record heat for the first half of 2017 (Jan-Jun)) (1:00 - 15:00), The wildfires in the Southwest , and the role that a monsoon late arrival might have played (15:00-19:00) The Southwestern Monsoon - the components of the system, comparisons to other years, and what we might expect going forward (19:00-38:00) As a note: this was recorded on Jun 12, 2017, before most of the extended run of monsoon activity that hit southern Arizona Jun 10 - Jun 17 (and is ongoing!).  Mike and Zack will discuss more about this (amazing) week in the next edition of the podcast. Materials discussed in this podcast:     Monsoon Resources CLIMAS: www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/monsoon Monsoon Summaries: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/monsoon/monsoon_summaries.html CSAP: Precipitation Maps of the Monsoon

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss May weather in comparison to the record/near-record March conditions, what this means for snowpack, streamflow and reservoir conditions. They also discuss past/present/future wildfire, the imminence of summer heat, and the eventual relief monsoon conditions will bring.  Oh and a bit of El Niño sprinkled throughout - the role it might be playing in seasonal outlooks, and how strong it might be.

In the May 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Zack Guido is back and sits down with Mike Crimmins to do a recap of the winter that was (or in some ways, wasn't), the current and recent conditions in the Southwest (including fire weather and fire conditions), and a look forward to what we can expect from the "fire and brimstone" season that is already building (with just a hint of a monsoon discussion to keep Zack feeling sane). We updated our iTunes podcast feed: It would help us tremendously if you could rate and review the new podcast feed in iTunes, as these ratings help other listeners find our podcast. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In this mini-episode of the SW Climate podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan take a quick spin around the "snow-eater" temps of March, plus a brief comment on fire conditions. As a note: this was recorded before the SawMill Fire started in late April, so the discussion is on March conditions, and some commentary on early April Fire events (Shovel, Molino Basin). it might seem obvious now, but around 8 minutes in, but Mike hits the conditions that led to the SawMill fire pretty nicely. We'll have a full length podcast next week with Mike and Zack. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins

In the March 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter season in the Southwest - with an eye towards how Arizona and New Mexico have fared (temperature, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow forecasts, etc.), as well as to the exceptional events taking place in California and across the Intermountain West.  They also try to put this "La Niña" into context, how it did (or did not) meet expectations, and whether that even matters at this point, as well as what the rumblings of El Niño might mean for the rest of the Spring (and 2017 overall).  Materials discussed in this podcast:   CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the last few months of weather in the Southwest, and how it doesn't quite look like we might have expected given borderline La Niña conditions. They also discuss the recent run of storms, and what this might mean for drought, as well as the decay of La Niña and what this might mean for the rest of the winter in the Southwest.  They share their mix of optimism given the weak/decaying La Niña, and pessimism given how dry the Southwest can be even under normal conditions.  They also dive into a discussion of other models that inform our perspective on regional weather and climate (PDO, MJO).

In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including: A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought),  A look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate, A look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.  

In this episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the Southwestern monsoon, with an eye towards how various regions of the Southwest fared in terms of storm events and seasonal totals. They also discuss the different events that contribute to seasonal totals during the official monsoon (June 15 - Sept 30), as well as what some of the best case and worst case monsoon totals might look like in a thought experiment regarding monsoon extremes.  They close out with a brief discussion of La Niña (or the lack thereof), and a look towards what fall and winter might have in store given the current (uncertain) conditions.

In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes to the seasonal total). Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just a

Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting. In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July.  After such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing.  They also track the building conditions that point t

In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon.  In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather). Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of re

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including:  The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period, A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis (Levine & McPhaden, below), and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon). Online Resources How the July 2014 Easterly Wind Burst Gave the 2015-

In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest.  They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January; and put these conditions into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone.  They also discuss the similarities of the current precipitation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year). They also point out that while we're not in a La Niña yet..but forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year.  They also look forward to the rest of the spring, includ

In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño.  They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.