Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

We hope that our climate/weather punditry can serve as a short break from concerns about the Covid19/coronavirus outbreak. We plan to continue producing this podcast remotely for the foreseeable future, and this podcast was recorded over Zoom. The sound quality might be a little different (or maybe you won't even notice), but we want to keep making the podcast during the stay-at/work-from-home order. We enjoy these discussions and hope you do too.  -Ben, Mike, and Zack In the April 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido bring you the latest news and commentary about climate in the Southwest. First, they have a conversation about the links between COVID-19 and climate, and the challenges of research during a fast-moving event (You can skip to the 15:00 mark if you want to move straight to their discussion of southwestern climate). For the rest of the podcast, they move through an overview of events from winter and early spring - including just how wet and wildflowe

In the Dec 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins for a discussion of the fall weather that was, and the winter weather that could be. This includes a very wet November, some of the factors that might affect our winter weather patterns, and the challenge of looking further out than a week or two during an ENSO-neutral winter. Happy Holidays!  We'll be back in (Jan) 2020 for another look at SW climate and weather. November 2019 ranks from National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov

In the Nov 2019 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan sit down to talk through recent storm activity in the Southwest after a month-plus pause in the rain for much of the region during October. Fear not, Zack Guido will be back with us soon, but you'll have to listen to the podcast to hear why (hint: he has a pretty good excuse). With the rain finally falling in the Southwest as November is coming to a close, we wanted to get a quick mini-pod out there before the Thanksgiving holiday, and we'll be back sometime in December to take a closer look at what has been going on in the Southwest's weather and climate, and what the winter may have in store. As a note, this was recorded the week of Nov 18, when a series of storms had started rolling through the Southwest, but the mechanism for these storms is relatively similar to that of the week of Nov 25 (i.e. when this podcast is finally coming out).

In the Oct 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the monsoon that was - or in many places, wasn't.  They discuss the monsoon overall (from June 15 - Sept 30), as well as recent September precipitation related to tropical storm activity and cut-off lows, to play the annual "is this monsoon or not?" game. They also think through how these events can juice seasonal totals, and take a closer look at the climatology of events (i.e. tropical storms) that supplement precipitation totals during the June 15 - Sept 30 monsoon period, and they consider how seasonal statistics might play out if we used a more restrictive definition for monsoon days and associated rainfall totals.  The figures below are what they discuss at the end of the podcast (iTunes and Android podcast listeners, visit https://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2019-southwest-climate-podcast-conservation-misery-and-lapse-rate-doping-edition to see these maps)

In the August 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the monsoon to-date (or the Non-Soon as some are calling it). They take a look at the regional precipitation patterns, how 2019 compares to recent years, and how far back we have to look to find a monsoon that is as dry as this one, with implications for drought as well as regional temperatures. They also look forward to the next 4-5 weeks to see if there's any chance to catch up (not likely) or at least finish strong (a bit better chance of that). They also discuss the monsoon fantasy bets, realizing that it might be a bit more fun if it was raining more - but the upshot is for round 2, Zack beat Mike by a cumulative score of 145 to 143 (but noting that a score of 300 would have meant an "average" monthly total for the 3 stations they picked).

In the this "mini" episode (the Aug 2019 SW Climate Podcast Monsoon Mini) - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the relative lack of monsoon activity across much of the region, as well as to discuss a few places that are receiving more precipitation than expected (looking at you Ajo). They recap some of the totals through Aug 7 and dive into the mechanics that have been driving this (relative lack of) activity. They also check the 1-2 week forecasts to see whether there is any hope for recovery in the latter half of the monsoon. Note 1: This was recorded on Aug 7, before the last round of activity (Aug 10 in particular in Tucson). Note 2: Zack and Mike huddled around our secondary recording option because Ben is on a fieldwork stint in Louisiana (but still managed to edit the podcast remotely), such is all of their dedication to the podcast!  The sound quality is mostly ok; however, the quality of the podcast content is exactly what you'd expect!  We'll go back to our normal routine for the next podc

Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back "early" (unlike the monsoon) for a special mini-podcast focused on the onset of the monsoon. They discuss some of the recent conditions and how they almost saw rain last week (or did, if you were in Vail, AZ or parts of NM), and consider 1) Has the monsoon started?  2) Why/Why-not? and 3) What data helps inform a perspective on monsoon onset (along with what this might mean for the rest of the season).  This doesn't include monthly recaps or other regional overviews and information, and is meant to capture some of the week-to-week changes in the monsoon based on what is happening (or is not happening). They'll be back with the typical monthly podcast whenever summer schedules bring everyone into the same room.  

In the June edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the astonishingly good run of weather the Southwest experienced in May. This busted their bet game of how many 100 degree days in May (there were zero! - Mike bet 2, Zack bet 5-6) but they'll take that loss every year if they could.  They also discuss what this has meant for drought, snowpack, streamflow, and fire risk, and compare monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns with long term averages. They finish with an extended preview of the monsoon, including a discussion about how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon, despite a pretty regular start date, as well as the challenge of forecasting intensity given how variable the monsoon can be. They also run down some friendly wagers on monsoon totals (June 15 - Sept 30) - with Mike (not surprisingly) picking climatology (6.1 inches), Zack going bullish at 110% of average, and Ben veering pessimist at 75% of average.  The

In the April 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter that (really) was for most of the Southwest, as well as more recent conditions that have favored Arizona over New Mexico. They also connect late fall and winter precipitation events to current and ongoing issues in the Southwest, including drought and reservoir storage and the status of lakes Mead and Powell, pollen and allergies this spring, and wildfire risk heading into the summer. They wrap up with a discussion of current and projected El Niño conditions, as well as what impact these conditions might have on tropical storm activity and the timing of the monsoon. Regarding the bet: Zack won the Jan-Feb-Mar precip bet with a guess of 2.9 inches (compared to Mike's 2.8) but both were admittedly pretty far off from the actual total of 3.74 (climatology was 2.53). The next bet is for the number of 100 degree days in May and June. Tune in to hear their guesses and send us your own.

In the March 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on the winter so far, including the "frigid" temperatures and "exceptional" precipitation. They also contextualize the winter by looking at the last 5 years - mostly warmer and drier - vs. climatology -- considering what a normal winter might actually look like in the Southwest.  They also discuss snowpack across the west, and consider how widespread this winter activity has been within the West. In addition to a brief detour into the state of El Niño and possible implications, they also revisit Zack's ski trip to slightly snowy Montana (instead of overwhelmingly snowed in Tahoe), and sum up the state of the precipitation bet for Jan-Feb-Mar (in case you missed it, Feb precipitation blew up the totals). They also have a new bet - whether we'll see enough precipitation between now and May 31 to reach top 8 wettest status (Zack's bet) or whether we'll stay in the 8th-14th wettest range (Mike's call).  

In the January 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido embrace our winter and talk through how the Southwest is performing over the last 30-90 days (including a recap of snow so far).  They also dive into the Polar Vortex, and talk through the factors that drive its appearance, and what it means for the rest of the country (as well as the Southwest).  They also take a brief detour to take a closer look at forecast snow totals across the West, in Zack's (hopefully successful) bid to predict good snow for an upcoming ski trip. They wrap up with a discussion of El Niño (or the possible lack thereof) and talk about what factors might be limiting the development of a more decisive El Niño event - including the Madden Julian Oscillation.  (They also recap where they stand in the J-F-M precip 'bet', although they both realize some flaws in their predictions from last month).

In the December edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the flip between our wetter/cooler October, and the drier conditions in November, as well as December so far. Next they dive into the snow - in a discussion of snow climatology in the Southwest, as well as a recent paper about declining snow in the western U.S by some of our colleagues in the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. Finally, they talk about the outlook for the next three months (Jan-Feb-Mar) and come up with a new bet tracking the monthly and cumulative totals. Play along at home, or send us your guesses before January gets too far along, and we'll see how you stack up against our "experts".   January February March Total Zack 1.25 0.75 0.9 2.9 Mike 1.5 1.0 0.3 2.8 Climatology 0.94 0.86 0.73 2.53  

In part 2 of the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into El Niño in the Southwest. They discuss the current state of the science, what the forecasts have to say about El Niño, and what climatology can tell us about our expectations for an El Niño event in the Southwest. Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long.  We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the monsoon, Oct/Nov weather & climate, and wildfire in the Southwest, while this part (part 2) covers El Niño in the Southwest (science, seasonal outlooks, and climatology).

In the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido give a brief recap of the monsoon rankings for 2018, to compare seasonal totals, and to see if a bit of hindsight adds anything to our assessment of the monsoon this year. Next they dive into October conditions in the Southwest (precipitation and temperature), and discuss the role that the Pacific tropical storm season played in these events, and the impacts that season had at a regional scale. They finish with a discussion of wildfire, with an eye towards what is happening in California right now. Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long.  We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the topics mentioned above (Monsoon, October/Nov weather & climate, wildfire in the Southwest), while part 2 (to be released early next week) will cover El N

In the September 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon and talk about how the monsoon fired up and unfolded, some pretty impressive rain totals in the Southwest, and who might have been left out at times.  There are technically still a few days left in the monsoon, but during the 'transition' season of September, it takes some pretty special circumstances (or a tropical storm!) to bring widespread precipitation to the region. Conveniently, this just happened, so they talk about this event (on/around Sept 19) as well as the weather events of the last month and the monsoon precipitation totals (to date). They wrap up with a discussion of "the bet" and preview next month's podcast when they'll dive back into ENSO and the possible-to-likely El Niño that's been brewing for a few months now. 

In the August edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the monsoon in the Southwest this year. They focus on how it compares to past events and long term averages, and discuss the spatial and temporal variability of the storms that occur during the monsoon (i.e. did it rain at your house or not?). As part of their regional roundup, they talk about why (really how) Phoenix has been hogging more monsoon events than usual, and make note of the untapped potential in other parts of the Southwest, where conditions have been ripe for widespread monsoon activity, but has not seen the kind of 'epic' monsoon that Zack (and much of central Tucson) was hoping for. Mike reminds us that over the longer term it eventually evens out, although this is limited comfort for those who are on the losing (i.e. dry) end of the range of monsoon precipitation to date.  The bet for the monsoon total had Zack guessing 5.75" and Mike at 7.5" (and Ben wins if they both go over). The Tucson Airport is

The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months. They also settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measur

In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement.  First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year. In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. Th

In the May 2018 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss May's weather and climate, especially the windy conditions that seem to fire up every year around this time, and the role that plays in wildfire season.  They also discuss the precipitation history of the past year, reflecting on the low precipitation totals across most of the Southwest, but how concentrated the rain events were in Southern Arizona (July during last the monsoon, and a good run of storms in February).  This leads them to a discussion of drought in the region, which they discuss in terms of recent conditions, how this compares to other droughts in the past 20 years, and the data and information drought experts use to monitor regional drought conditions. As per usual, there's a friendly wager on the line. Zack "won" last month’s bet guessing the first day over 100 degrees in May (in 2018, it was May 6). In this episode they guess how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-y

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss what happened with the weather over the last 30 days. They break down the event from mid-February that brought a pulse of moisture to SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, including the connection between atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Southwest (vs. CA). They also discuss the larger regional patterns of rain, snow, and streamflow within the context of the fading La Niña signal, and wrap things up with a new bet. When will the first 100 degree day occur? - tune in for the details, but as is their pattern, Zack is a bit ambitious in his guess, and Mike tends towards climatology.