Chinapower

In this episode of the ChinaPower podcast Meia Nouwens joins us to discuss the major themes and takeaways from the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue. She discusses this year’s record number of high-level participants and the significance of the dialogue for regional security. Nouwens unpacks both Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun’s and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s speeches and analyzes what they can tell us about the current state of U.S.-China relations. Finally, Nouwens speaks to how China’s participation and actions this year differed from previous years and what messages China may have been conveying regarding its approach to global security going forward. Meia Nouwens is a senior fellow for Chinese Security and Defense Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).  Her expertise lies in Chinese cross-service defense analysis, China’s defense industry and innovation, as well as China’s regional strategic affairs and international relations. She leads IISS research on China’s Digit

In this episode of the ChinaPower podcast, Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro joins us to discuss her new book, Upstart, which provides a fresh perspective on China’s rise to great power status. Dr. Mastro analyzes China’s innovative buildup of power over the past 30 years through three distinct approaches: emulation, exploitation, and entrepreneurship. Dr. Mastro explores ways China has mirrored U.S. activities, capitalized on U.S. blind spots, and embraced innovative approaches. Dr. Mastro argues that the Upstart lens allows us to better understand Chinese strategic calculations. Finally, Dr. Mastro explains her recommendations to US policy makers, such as increasing U.S. “entrepreneurship” with respect to disputes in the South China Sea, and provides her predictions for China’s approach in the coming decade. Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, where her research focuses on C

In this episode of the China Power Podcast, Dr. Lauren Dickey joins us to discuss Taiwan’s upcoming inauguration of president-elect William Lai. Dr. Dickey dives into her predictions for Lai’s presidency and potential responses in the coming months from Beijing. She discusses what she thinks will be a continuation from Lai of his predecessor’s pragmatic approach in cross-Strait relations and that he will continue to seek stable footing with Beijing. Further, given the number of domestic issues China must currently contend with, Dr. Dickey explains it is unlikely China will make any majors moves towards a large-scale conflict in the near future; rather, she predicts Beijing will likely respond to the inauguration with familiar grey zone activity towards Taiwan. Dr. Dickey speaks to the divided legislature that Lai will face, explaining he will likely have to facilitate certain trade-offs with the KMT in order to ensure legislation is passed. Finally, she gives her prediction for the Lai administration’s defens

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joel Wuthnow joins us to discuss China’s recent restructuring of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and particularly the disbanding of its Strategic Support Force and establishment of a new Information Support Force. Dr. Wuthnow explains the major organizational changes involved and how the new force fits into China’s overall military structure. He argues that while the PLA has long recognized the importance of dominating the information domain, this move suggests dissatisfaction with the previous organizational structure and its ability to effectively integrate capabilities for modern information warfare. He explains that these reforms do not indicate an acceleration of China’s military modernization goals or a shift towards a more offensive posture. Finally, Dr. Wuthnow shares his expectations for changes and priorities that may take shape for the PLA in the future. Dr. Wuthnow is a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Leta Hong Fincher joins us to discuss the legal and social status of women in China. Dr. Fincher, who has written widely on gender issues in the PRC, reviews the history of Chinese marriage and divorce policies with an eye towards China’s contemporary feminist movements. She speaks to how the privatization of housing in the 1990s led to widening gender income gaps and the way women are increasingly discriminated against in the workplace. She highlights, amidst China’s ongoing demographic struggles, the plight of so-called “leftover women,” or sheng nu, who are faced with growing government and societal pressure to marry and start families. Dr. Fincher concludes by discussing the future of feminism in China, emphasizing the resilience and popularity of feminist movements despite the challenges they have faced. Dr. Leta Hong Fincher is a journalist and research associate at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute. A sociologist by trade, she focuses

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Zhao Hai joins us to discuss China’s views on the Russia-Ukraine war and its broader implications for China. Dr. Zhao provides an assessment of how he thinks China perceives the evolving situation on the ground, emphasizing China’s concerns about the risk of further escalation between Russia and the West, potentially involving the use of nuclear weapons. He argues that the Ukraine crisis has heightened U.S.-Russia competition and speaks to how China views the conflict as a sign of the world order shifting towards one of multi-polarity. He also shared his assessment of the United States engaging in enhanced proxy warfare in Ukraine that could be used in the Indo-Pacific in the future.   Dr. Zhao is the director of the International Politics Program at the National Institute for Global Strategy and research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Before joining CASS, he was a research fellow at the N

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Steve Tsang joins us to discuss his new book The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, coauthored with Dr. Olivia Cheung. Dr. Tsang explains that Xi Jinping thought is vastly different from the thought and practices of his predecessors, such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Core to Xi Jinping thought is the desire to achieve China’s national rejuvenation and the embracement of the “Tian Xia” concept of Chinese hegemony. Dr. Tsang points out that Xi seeks to position China in a more prominent role on the world stage. Dr. Tsang highlights that through Xi’s efforts to centralize the Communist Party under his control and to create an alternative to the US-led international order, Xi aims to reshape policy both within China and abroad. Finally, Dr. Tsang shares his thoughts on how best to deter Xi Jinping.   Dr. Steve Tsang is Professor of China Studies and Director of the China Institute, SOAS, London. He is also a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and an Emeritus

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens joins us to discuss one of President Xi Jinping’s signature priorities: China’s national security. She delves into Xi's “Comprehensive National Security concept,” emphasizing its broad scope with over 20 different components, covering everything from border security to food security. Dr. Greitens discusses Xi Jinping’s preventive rather than reactive approach to security threats, in an attempt to treat what the CCP views as root causes to security issues rather than just the symptoms. Finally, Dr. Greitens explains how China’s views of national security influences how it exerts control at home and uses force abroad.  Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, where she directs UT’s Asia Policy Program. Her research focuses on security, authoritarian politics, foreign policy, and East Asia. Currently, Dr. Greitens is on leave to serve as a Visiting Associate

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Tuvia Gering joins us to discuss China’s strategy in the context of the Israel-Hamas war and the Red Sea crisis. He dissects the different views within China and the role China has played in both. He shares that China blames the United States for the war and that the PRC response to the region is informed by China’s desire to push back against the Western-led world order. Mr. Gering also discusses the politics behind the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the economic ramifications that have followed. Overall, China’s responses to both crises have been high on rhetoric and low on action. Finally, Mr. Gering warns of the possibility of broader escalation in the Middle east and the low likelihood of Chinese willingness to work with the United States.   Tuvia Gering is a nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, a researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS),

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Matthew P. Funaiole and Mr. Brian Hart join us to discuss the work of Hidden Reach, a special initiative focused on analyzing China’s growing influence abroad. Ranging from China’s use of civilian research vessels to collection intelligence to its construction of ground stations in South America, Hidden Reach’s analysis explores “blind spots” that US media and policy have often overlooked. Funaiole and Hart discuss the key role that satellite imagery plays in open-source intelligence to tell the story of China’s expanding global influence and its implications. They dive into Hidden Reach’s existing work, with an eye towards future projects and the overarching goals of the initiative. Matthew P. Funaiole is vice president of iDeas Lab, Andreas C. Dracopoulos Chair in Innovation and senior fellow of China Power Project at the CSIS. He specializes in using data-driven research to unpack complex policy issues, specifically those related to Chinese foreign and securit

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Hans Kristensen joins us to unravel the complexity of China’s expanding nuclear capabilities. Mr. Kristensen compares the composition of China’s nuclear stockpile to its global counterparts and analyzes China’s ongoing modernization campaign of its nuclear force in detail. Mr. Kristensen addresses the uncertainties surrounding China’s nuclear program and strategy, in particular the credibility of China’s long-held “no first use” policy. He dives into China’s potential escalation scenarios in the region and concludes by pointing out that he believes China could seek a nuclear war-fighting capability.  Mr. Hans M. Kristensen is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, where he provides the public with analysis and background information about the status of nuclear forces and the role of nuclear weapons. Kristensen is co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear F

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Elbridge Colby joins us to discuss U.S. strategic competition with China. Mr. Colby stresses that he is most worried about the PRC military threat. He advocates focusing on Taiwan as a principal flashpoint and says the United States should “speak softly and carry a big stick” by equipping allies for military deterrence rather than focusing exclusively on economic deterrence. Colby further discusses the Biden administration’s approach, emphasizing that the United States should focus more carefully on not appearing to contain China.  He also shares that there is consensus among Republicans that China is a central challenge to the United States but there are debates within the party as to how much the U.S. should focus on China. He concludes by advocating for a shift towards prioritizing the PRC, both in terms of force planning and relationships with allies in the region. Elbridge A. Colby is the founder of the Marathon Initiative, a nonprofit that focuses on Americ

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For this debate, the proposition is “China's accelerated expansion of its nuclear arsenal represents a shift in China's nuclear strategy and doctrine.” Arguing for this proposition is Dr. Tong Zhao, who is a senior fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Fiona Cunningham who is an assistant Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024.  For this debate, the proposition is “the United States and China are locked in a new cold war.” Arguing for this proposition is Dr. Michael Beckley, who is the director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, an associate professor at Tufts University, and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Arne Westad, who is a professor at the Jackson School of Global Affairs at Yale University.  To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For this debate, the proposition is “China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade the island in the next ten years” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Lonnie Henley, who is a senior fellow for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Phil Saunders, who is the director of the Center for the Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January, 2024. For this discussion, the proposition is “Xi Jinping has signaled that reunification with Taiwan is a legacy issue that he must achieve during his term in office.” The first speaker for this discussion is Ms. Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund. The second speaker is Mr. Chad Sbragia, who is a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analysis and is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China at the Department of Defense.  To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https:/

On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024. For the first debate, the proposition is “the United States and China are making progress in creating a “floor” in U.S.-China relations to manage tensions and crises.” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Rick Waters who is the managing director of the China Practice at the Eurasia Group. Arguing against is Mr. Dan Blumenthal who is a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.

This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund’s China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article’s key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, the threat of punishment must be not only credible but also conditional. Finally, the authors outline what actions each of the three actors- the U.S., China, and Taiwan- should take to effectively convey assurances to one another. Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Pow

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Mr. July Amador to discuss the Philippines’s view of the recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea and China’s behavior in the waters and beyond. Mr. Amador dives into China’s coercive tactics in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal and its repeated violations of international law in those areas. He speaks to China’s advantages in resources and the staying power it possesses, giving it an edge over the Philippines and other regional actors. Mr. Amador highlights the need for collective action by the international community to condemn China’s actions and further bolster support and resources for the Philippines.  July Amador is executive director of the Philippine-American Educational Foundation. Previously, he was a civil servant in the Philippine government working on foreign affairs and national security. He continues to be active in Track 1.5 and Track 2 diplomacy and specializes on Philippine foreign policy and national se

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Dawn Murphy to discuss China’s engagement with the global south, particularly the Middle East. Murphy lays out drivers of China’s engagement with the Middle East, which includes securing access to resources and markets and obtaining support for PRC policies. At the same time, China is building an alternative order in the Middle East, deepening relations with regional actors across the board. She argues that Beijing’s approach towards the Israel-Hamas conflict is consistent with its prior positions on tensions in the region. She explains that despite China’s growing influence in the region, it is not clear Beijing believes it can or should do more to end the Israel-Hamas conflict aside from facilitating dialogue among regional stakeholders. Beijing is unlikely to use its leverage to pressure Iran or other actors. Finally, she notes that China benefits from a stable and peaceful Middle East and there is potential for the United States and China to