Chinapower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Jeffrey Ding joins us to discuss U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) competition and his book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Dr. Ding describes the framework he uses to understand the competition between the US and China on AI and explains that while many assume leading a technological competition comes from developing the next breakthrough invention, it should actually be centered around the diffusion of these technologies throughout their population of users. Technological leadership, therefore, depends on which country can best transfer and spread innovation from its top firms to the entire economy more effectively. Dr. Ding notes that China prioritizes an innovation-centric approach while neglecting broad-based technical and STEM education. He finds that the United States is better positioned than China to adopt and diffuse AI across a broad spectrum of sectors, given that more U.S. training institutio

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joel Wuthnow and Dr. Phil Saunders join us to discuss their new book on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA): “China’s Quest for Military Supremacy.” They begin by explaining the motivations behind their book and the growing demand for a comprehensive resource on the PLA among students, policymakers, and defense practitioners. Dr. Wuthnow then outlines how the PLA has entered a “new era” under Xi Jinping, characterized by greater confidence, structural reforms, and an expanding operational reach. Dr. Saunders then highlights how the PLA is increasingly being used to shape the Indo-Pacific region, citing China’s recent live-fire exercises near Australia and New Zealand as an example of its more assertive posture. Both experts also delve into key challenges facing the PLA, from Xi Jinping’s efforts to tighten party control to persistent corruption and political reliability issues. They also assess how the PLA’s rigid command structure and political indoctrination cou

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Edward Fishman joins us to discuss the evolving landscape of economic warfare and the United States’ strategic use of economic tools against China and other global actors. Drawing from his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, he explains how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls have become central to great power competition and explores how today’s hyper-globalized economy has created chokepoints—critical areas where one state holds a dominant position, allowing for few alternatives. He examines the most potent weapons in the U.S. economic arsenal, and how their use—or mere threat—can compel adversaries to shift behavior. Mr. Fishman provides an insider’s account of the Trump administration’s economic warfare strategy against China and the rationale behind its approach. He also analyzes China’s dual-track approach to economic warfare, the Biden administration’s use of economic warfare against Russia, and the role of U.S. firms

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Kyle Jaros and Dr. Sara Newland join us to explore the evolution of U.S.-China subnational diplomacy. They begin by examining the history and current landscape of US-China relations at the subnational level. They point out specifically that throughout the last five years, U.S.-China relations at the subnational level have become increasingly politicized. Dr. Newland explains that we are seeing a trickledown effect of local politicians weighing in on Taiwan and China issues, setting up local caucuses that mimic those in congress and notes that these actions are contributing to increased Sinophobia within U.S. local communities. Dr. Jaros further explains that in recent years, longstanding subnational ties with China have started winding down, with state and local leaders more hesitant to visit China, meet with Chinese officials, or welcome Chinese investments. They note this hesitation originates both from federal policy and from an increasingly hawkish stance at

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Mihaela Papa joins us to explore the significance of BRICS and its evolving role in reshaping global governance. Dr. Papa begins by examining the importance of this platform, such as the BRICS countries' central role in addressing major global development challenges, and its goals as an organization, such as striving towards a more equitable multipolar world order. She discusses the group’s rapid expansion over the past two years and delves into the key factors driving its growing appeal among countries in the Global South. The conversation focuses particularly on China's role within BRICS, highlighting how it leverages the bloc to advance its strategic objectives on the global stage. Particular attention is given to China's efforts in pushing for innovation and AI cooperation and the bloc’s de-dollarization agenda. Dr. Papa concludes by evaluating the effectiveness of BRICS and examining the strategic implications it presents for U.S. policy. Dr. Mihaela Papa. D

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Matthew Funaiole and Mr. Brian Hart join us to discuss China’s ambitions in the polar regions. They start by explaining China’s scientific, commercial, strategic, and diplomatic interests in the polar regions and how the polar regions fit into China’s broader strategy of leveraging “new strategic frontiers” to expand its influence, outpace rivals, and set global rules and norms. Dr. Funaiole touches on the differing geopolitical environments of the Arctic and Antarctic and how this shapes Beijing’s approaches to the two regions. Mr. Hart then provides insights on the dual-use potential of China’s polar research stations and how China can use these to achieve military and intelligence goals. They then discuss China’s challenges in forming Arctic partnerships and its growing collaboration with Moscow. They conclude with an assessment of the significance to U.S. security interests and offer thoughts on how Washington can work with allies and partners to advance thei

This ChinaPower Podcast is a recording of an event we held on December 18th, 2024 on the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2024 report on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR).   Required every year by Congress for over 20 years, the CMPR offers an authoritative assessment of the PRC's national strategies and its regional and global ambitions. It also outlines key developments pertaining to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization and the expansion of its nuclear, cyberspace, and space capabilities. What are the major takeaways from the 2024 report and what is the current assessment of China’s military power? How are China’s defense and security strategies evolving, and what does it mean for the United States? Joining us to highlight the report’s findings are Dr. Ely S. Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs and Dr. Michael S. Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defe

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. He notes that China still sees itself as a great power on the Korean Peninsula, striving for regional stability to ensure its own national security, but that China struggles to use its economic and diplomatic pressures on North Korea, fearing that it may antagonize Pyongyang against Beijing. Dr. Zhang notes that North Korea is widely viewed in China as an agent of chaos and Beijing does not wan

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ryan Berg joins us to discuss China’s relations with Latin America. Dr. Berg discusses both Chinese and U.S. interests in the region, emphasizing that while the U.S. has tended to approach the region with “strategic neglect,” China seems to view Latin America as highly important in terms of both its strategic and economic goals. Dr. Berg explains his view that President Xi is personally invested in the region and believes it holds high economic complementarity to the Chinese economy, specifically in relation to China’s Belt and Road Imitative (BRI). Dr. Berg notes that although the U.S. is still the preferred security partner among Latin American countries, China is becoming more competitive in this space and is viewed among many countries as providing more opportunities, specifically in the economic realm. Dr. Berg also discusses the public opinion of China in Latin America, noting that China’s image has not fully recovered since its decline during COVID-19, and

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Ivan Kanapathy joins us to discuss what Donald Trump’s second administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy may look like and the ways in which Trump redefined the U.S. relationship with China during his first term. Mr. Kanapathy shares that a second Trump administration will likely show high continuity from his first and speaks to how Trump will have to deal with a more aggressive China this time around but that many of the measures the Trump administration put in place during his first term have served to weaken China throughout the last few years. Mr. Kanapathy provides his assessment that the Trump administration will likely maintain many of the same objectives from the Biden administration, specifically in prioritizing U.S. security and prosperity as well as maintaining strong relationships with our allies and partners. However, he shares that Trump will likely place a larger emphasis on reducing freeriders and on leveling the planning field through increased burde

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump’s first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China’s view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi’s unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi’s focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China’s internal dynamics and its forei

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.    Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Russia and China. Dr. Kendall-Taylor discusses the broader geopolitical factors driving Russia’s desire to strengthen ties with China. She analyzes Russia’s increasing dependence on China in the context of its war in Ukraine, and recent reports that China may be providing lethal aid to Russia. Dr. Kendall-Taylor also explores the dynamics between Putin and Xi, highlighting how their close relationship shapes the strategic coordination between the two countries. Finally, Dr. Kendall-Taylor addresses potential challenges for Europe and the United States in responding to this growing alignment. Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, specializing in national security issues, particularly regarding Russia, authoritarianism, and the transatlantic alliance. She previously served as deputy national intelligence officer for Russia a

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Michael Davidson joins us to discuss China’s energy security. Dr. Davidson gives an overview of China’s energy landscape and compares it to that of other countries, such as the United States. He explains how China’s energy priorities have evolved throughout the last decade, especially in response to factors such as climate change and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Davidson emphasizes the effects that the 2021 and 2022 power shortages in China had on senior Chinese leadership and the resulting elevation in importance of energy security, specifically in the power sector. Additionally, Dr. Davidson discusses China’s challenge in balancing energy security with its goals of reducing emissions and the resulting expanded definition of what energy security encompasses. Finally, Dr. Davidson speaks to how China’s evolving energy security affects its foreign policy and the potential risks for the U.S. and other countries in collaborating with China on clean energy.  

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick joins us to discuss recent Sino-Russian activities and what they mean for the overall China-Russia relationship. Dr. Wishnick analyzes the May 2024 Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing, noting that the joint statement the two countries released had significant areas of continuity and some areas of change compared to 2023. She then analyzes the meeting between the two leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the nearly half a dozen military exercises the two countries engaged in in July and August 2024. Dr. Wishnick emphasizes that the recent surge of China-Russia military exercises are meant to signal China-Russia political and strategic coordination, with some scheduled in advance as part of their normal annual exercise plans and others scheduled in response to U.S. activities. Finally, Dr. Wishnick shares her predictions for developments within Sino-Russian relations in the coming months.  Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick is a Senior Research

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. I-Chung Lai and Professor Jacques deLisle to unpack China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law and its important implications for cross-Strait relations—the topic of an international conference co-hosted by CSIS and Prospect Foundation in early August 2024. Dr. Lai dissects the legislation’s nine articles, particularly Article 8’s conditions in which China can employ ‘non-peaceful means’ toward Taiwan. Professor deLisle speaks to the implications of the recent “22 Opinions” that China released to strengthen the Anti-Secession Law. The 22 Opinions criminalizes support for Taiwan independence and could be used even against foreign individuals who are not from China or Taiwan. However, Professor deLisle suggests that international recognition and enforcement of these laws would raise human rights concerns. Finally, Dr. Lai and Professor deLisle offer their recommendations on how the United States, Taiwan, and the international community can effectively respond

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the major themes from China's long-anticipated Third Plenum and what it signaled for China’s economic trajectory in the coming decade. Dr. Kennedy highlights the continuity that the Third Plenum presented, with no drastic economic measures introduced. However, he underscores the idea that Chinese leadership’s statist approach may pose additional challenges in addressing domestic issues. Dr. Kennedy also discusses China’s linkage between national security and economic progress and its shift toward high-tech development to build resilience and decrease foreign reliance. Finally, Dr. Kennedy provides predictions on where China’s economic growth will be in the next two years.  Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has traveled to

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Victor Cha joins us to discuss his major takeaways from the June 2024 Putin-Kim summit and the significance of North Korea and Russia’s new mutual defense clause for the international community. Dr. Cha dissects how North Korea's relationships with Russia and China have evolved over time and notes that the new defense clause gives North Korea an opportunity to leverage its closer relationship with Russia to its advantage vis-a-vis North Korea-China relations. Dr. Cha explains the global and regional implications of the mutual defense agreement. Finally, Dr. Cha discusses his recommendations for how the United States, South Korea, and other and allies and partners should address this growing relationship.  *This podcast was recorded prior to the 2024 NATO DC Summit.  Dr. Victor Cha is a Senior Vice President for Asia and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. He is professor of government and holds the D.S. Song-KF Chair in the Department of Government and the School of Fore

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Aaron Glasserman joins us to discuss China’s ethnic minority policies. Dr. Glasserman speaks to the makeup of China’s 55 ethnic minority populations and the evolution of China’s policies towards the groups. Dr. Glasserman discusses the idea that the CCP’s recognition and treatment of these groups is in large part an effort to reinforce its historic identity. He underscores President Xi Jinping’s efforts to prioritize the Han identity and facilitate ethnic fusion into one common entity through assimilation and sinicization of other minorities with the Han. Finally, Dr. Glasserman shares how these ethnic minority groups have not been able to organize collectively and pushback against CCP policies. He assesses that China’s policies towards its ethnic minorities have not significantly impacted China’s international image or foreign policy.  Aaron Glasserman is a current Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies and a former postdoctora