Macro Horizons

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton share their thoughts on credit spreads for the month of November. Topics include the impact of the ongoing yield grab environment, light issuance, and narrowing swap spreads on credit spreads thus far in 2019 and why the outlook of each of these factors could bring wider spreads into year-end and early 2020.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 28th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton provide an update on the SOFR/LIBOR transition at the halfway point between July 2017, when Andrew Bailey’s comments kickstarted the process, and December 2021, the current proposed deadline for the cessation of LIBOR. Topics include: the proliferation of the SOFR-linked FRN market, the construction of a term structure for SOFR, progress on ISDA’s credit spread adjustment equating SOFR to LIBOR in the future, the impact of recent repo market volatility on the transition, and finally, whether or not LIBOR will exist beyond 2021.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 21st, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 15th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 7th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 30th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent repo market volatility including its causes and the Fed’s response. What do the Fed’s repo operations imply for the repo market going forward and how do they compare to a standing repo facility? While spreads are likely to trade range-bound in the next few weeks, they discuss their expectations for wider credit and swap spreads in Q4.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 23rd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Jon Hill, Ian Lyngen and Dan Krieter discuss the developments of the last couple days; not least of which includes the effective Fed funds rate setting this morning at the top of the target range (2.25%). Will the Fed announce a standing repo facility tomorrow? Cut Interest on Excess Reserves? This is a live recording of a client conference call held on 9/17/19 at 1pm eastern.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 16th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins with Michael Gregory, Ian Lyngen, Jon Hill, Ben Jeffery, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter and Dan Belton bring you their thoughts on the looming flashpoints that frame their outlook through year-end.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 9th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 3rd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss why high quality credit spreads are unlikely to widen in the near term as technicals in both Treasury and spread markets remain very supportive.  However, they also highlight a few fundamental drivers of spread market weakness that could overwhelm supportive technicals and push spreads wider in the 4thquarter: the ongoing trade war, absolutely spread levels, an inverted yield curve, seasonality, risk emanating from Europe, and what is now expected to be a messy year-end episode after the July FOMC minutes drastically reduced the odds of a Fed repo facility in 2019.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 26th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins with Ian Lyngen, Jon Hill, Ben Jeffery and Dan Krieter bring you their thoughts on Fed credibility regarding potential changes to the FOMC’s operating monetary policy framework. They discuss the market implications of inflation make-up strategies, balance sheet expansion efficacy, and delayed expectations for the Fed repo facility on the back of the FOMC July Minutes.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 19th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 12th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Trade tensions are mounting, accelerating the post-FOMC risk off sentiment. China let the yuan depreciate beyond 7 per dollar. US Treasury has formally labelled China a Currency Manipulator. 10yr Treasury yields have fallen by over 30bp this past week. The front-end is pricing two full rate cuts and a decent chance of a third before year-end. Credit spreads are wider and swap spreads are narrower. How much further will China let the yuan fall? What are the implications for the US economy, rates and spreads? How will Canada be impacted if the Fed cuts sooner or by more than the market expects?