Montel Weekly

The European Commission this week proposed a flurry of measures to lower wholesale prices, shield consumers from perceived market failure and to smooth out “excessive volatility”. Listen to a discussion on how “manipulation” has driven gas prices and why intervention in the form of a price cap is necessary. In the medium term, Europe’s energy markets may need more radical overhaul.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Simone Mori, Head of Europe, Enel

Heavy rainfall over the past few weeks has alleviated some concerns over hydropower supply in southern Norway, boosting reservoir levels from near record lows. While electricity rationing may be off the table, prices remain elevated in some areas. Listen to a discussion on the market outlook over the coming winter in the Nordic region and in continental Europe.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Marcus Eriksson, Lead Analyst, European Power, Refinitiv, Ole Tom Djupskås, Nordic Power Market Expert, Refinitiv.

Finland is in the midst of an energy war, with households, industry and the power sector needing to stand together to get through the coming winter. Listen to a discussion on how the country is already preparing for blackouts, as it pins its hopes on the start-up of the much-delayed Olkiluoto 3 reactor, increased wind output and mild weather. Could the lights go out in Helsinki this winter?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Jukka Ruusunen, CEO, Fingrid.

Spain has implemented measures aimed at shielding energy users from soaring prices but the move has had little impact on reducing the country´s demand for gas and may have scared off investors. Listen to a discussion on the effect the Spanish intervention has had so far and why it may not be suitable at a wider EU level. And does Europe face even greater challenges in the winter of 2023/24?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Ana Barillas, Head of Iberia, Aurora Energy Research.

The European Commission has proposed several emergency measures aimed at shielding households and businesses from price shocks, and has indicated that it also plans deeper reforms to the current wholesale energy market design. Listen to a discussion on the current sentiment in Brussels - what proposals are on the table and how effective will they be in mitigating soaring prices?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Siobhan Hall, Brussels Correspondent, Montel.

France has touted a huge nuclear recovery, but experts question the ability of EDF to bring back a reactor a week between October and January. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for French nuclear availability for the coming winter. Should market participants place their trust in promises that reactors will be online in the New Year?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Chris Eales, Editor France, MontelEmeric De Vigan, Vice President Power, KeplerYves Le Thieis, Vice President, Compass Lexecon.

Politicians have finally threatened action to “fix” a broken energy market that could impoverish households and drive industry out of Europe. Listen to a discussion on what needs fixing and a passionate defence of the marginal pricing model, where the most expensive power plant sets the wholesale price. What short-fixes are urgently required, and how could policymakers reduce the risk of future energy price shocks?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Stephen Woodhouse, Director at Afry Management Consulting.

Germany looks set to meet its gas storage target well ahead of winter, and some are optimistic the country can muddle through peak demand when the weather turns cold. But others fear sharp drawdowns from November could result in shortages – and price volatility - particularly if Russia were to permanently halt flows through the Nord Stream pipeline. Listen to a discussion on how the country’s central buyer, the Trading Hub Europe, could bring volumes to the market and the impact on prices.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Bjørn Inge Vik, Gas Analyst, Volue                  Henning Gloystein, Director - Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group                

Drought, heatwaves, weak river and hydro levels, combined with record low French nuclear output and dwindling gas supplies are driving energy prices to fresh highs on a daily basis. Aluminium producers and fertiliser firms have already announced closures across Europe. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for industry over the months ahead. Will it experience demand reduction or destruction?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, CEO, Energy Brainpool                  Mark Turner, Partner, Baringa                  Alexander Andresen, Head of Power Procurement, Elkem.

Plans by Norway to impose restrictions on electricity exports if the country’s hydropower reservoir levels drop below critical levels have created uproar at home and abroad. Listen to a discussion on what is currently on the table, the reaction from market participants, and the choices facing policy makers ahead of a difficult winter. What are the repercussions of limiting power flows, and is the proposal a sign that some countries are retreating into isolationist energy policies? Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Marius Holm Rennesund, Partner, Thema Consulting,                   Geir Brønmo, Principal Afry,                   Johanees Bruun, Director for Electricity Markets, Energinet. 

Europe could be forced to extend voluntary reductions in gas consumption to mandatory measures as Russia plays “hardball” by curbing gas supplies before some EU nations like Germany can find alternative sources. Listen to a discussion on the winter outlook and the options – apart from rationing – open to governments and regulators. In the event of mandatory rationing, how would this be organised?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Nadia Martin Wiggen, Partner and Analyst, Pareto Securities                   Leon Izbicki, Associate, Natural Gas, Energy Aspects. 

Concerns over energy supply for the coming months are mounting as gas flows from Russia to Germany through the vital Nord Stream 1 pipeline have dwindled to 20% of capacity. Market participants fear that deliveries could be cut completely, due to an ongoing spat between the two countries over the turbine necessary to pump the gas. Listen to a discussion with a Ukraine-based expert on the likelihood of a full cut to flows and the potential implications for European industry and households.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Yuriy Onyshkiv, Senior Gas Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)

In the last episode before a summer break, we round up the past six months and delve into the key drivers for the remainder of the year. Gas will continue to be the pressing issue, with a squeeze on supply likely to remain the single most important issue for 2022 and 2023. Listen to a discussion on why Nordic firms will be praying for rain and the urgency to solve permitting bottlenecks for green energy across Europe. And much, much, more.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, MontelAndres Cala, LNG Correspondent, MontelTasmin Chowdhary, Environmental Markets Reporter, Montel

Can we expect a total reduction in gas flows to Europe over the coming weeks? Will the Nord Stream 1 pipeline stay offline after annual maintenance in July? These are the key issues facing countries across Europe in the week to come, as a trickle in gas deliveries could deepen the continent’s energy, possibly causing prices to spike still further. Listen to discussion on the outlook for the coming winter and the options available for market participants and policy makers. Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG

The war in Ukraine continues wreaking death and destruction, with hopes of a lasting ceasefire looking unlikely. The conflict also continues to cast a shadow on Europe’s energy market as the bloc looks to wean off its dependency on Russian gas. Listen to a discussion on whether Moscow’s new game plan could be to saturate the market with a view to price out alternative supplies, particularly from the US.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Henning Gloystein, Director, Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

The European Commission’s recent RepowerEU package seeks to hastily end the continent’s dependency on Russian gas as well as accelerate the expansion of renewables and green gases. Listen to a discussion on the long, expensive road ahead, and why not everyone welcomes plans to boost the region’s gas infrastructure. Will the new measures ease the permitting logjam for green energy or could a more targeted approach work better? Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Ilaria Conti, Head of Gas, Florence School of Regulation Dries Acke. Director, Solar Power Europe

In a tale of two regions, southern Norway will continue to experience very high wholesale prices while they will be much lower in northern parts of the country and Sweden, for a long while yet. Listen to a discussion on the market outlook in the Nordics amid the wider energy crisis, Finland’s power squeeze, and why companies are deserting the forward market. In addition, what’s the likelihood of a supply crunch in the coming winter?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GeoMarius Holm Rennesund, Partner, Thema Consulting

Russia’s turning off the gas taps to Poland – along with Bulgaria and more recently Finland – has created an opportunity for one of Europe’s biggest producers of fossil fuels to switch to more renewables like wind and solar. Listen to a discussion on how Russia’s war in Ukraine has spurred Warsaw to speed up its green transition, even if it means a brief pick-up in coal-burn to keep the lights on.  Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Joanna Mackowiak-Pandera, President of Energy Forum.

This week French president Emmanuel Macron announced a new prime minister – with other key energy portfolios still to be put in place. The latest pod discusses corrosion at several of the country’s nuclear plants, expected output over the crucial winter period and the expansion of solar power. We also examine whether Macron’s plan to build up to 14 new reactors is realistic without a restructuring of EDF.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Emeric de Vigan, CEO and Founder Core-E

European carbon prices have been sidelined by the debate around sanctions on gas, coal, and oil from Russia. However, EUA prices have seen huge volatility, with price swings of up to EUR 8 a day. Listen to a discussion on the price drivers over the short and medium-term,  and why EUR 100/t would be unsustainable. In addition, what is the likelihood of excluding financial entities, or speculators from the market?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Ingvild Sørhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, RefinitivMarcus Ferdinand, Head of Analysis, GreenfactBernadett Papp, Head of Research and Analysis, Vertis