Montel Weekly

Global geopolitical tensions are growing amid a creeping escalation of the conflicts in the Middle-East and in Ukraine. Listen to a discussion on the dangers to global security and energy supply as very few countries seek to de-escalate conflict zones. This week’s pod also touches on the upcoming EU elections and positive signs in Germany as power demand seems to have bottomed out and turned a corner.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

What a difference a couple of years makes. As France returns to a position of net power exporter, it appears to have moved on from the supply woes of 2022. But booming solar generation, a plethora of negative prices in France and its neighbours have weighed on wholesale electricity prices and raised doubts about the financing of new nuclear plants and renewables. Listen to a discussion on the flexible operation of nuclear plants in combination with solar and wind generation. Could France be heading for a glut of power production?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests:Yves Le Thieis, Vice President, Compass LexeconPaolo Coghe, CEO, Acousmatics

Europe is the frontrunner in the global renewables boom, as wind and solar have become the fastest growing electricity sources in history. Listen to a discussion on why the massive growth in capacity is set to continue this year, while coal and gas generation set to fall further. However, there are headwinds. Curtailments and public acceptance are obstacles that the industry and policy makers need to address, while negative prices may be a concern to some they should provide incentives for innovation in storage and flexibility. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Dave Jones, Global Insights Director at Ember.

European carbon prices have rebounded from two-year lows in February to trade around EUR 70/t. One of the main drivers for the CO2 market has so far been gas. Listen to a discussion with Ingvild Sorhus from Veytabout the other drivers influencing prices and why a return to EUR 100/t is possible as a shortage looms from 2026.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Ingvild Sørhus, Lead Carbon Analyst, Veyt 

The global gas market faces turmoil and increased price volatility should Donald Trump return to the white house. Listen to a discussion why a Trump victory in November will be “like dropping a hand grenade on the energy markets”, the implications of Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure and Putin’s shadow fleet of LNG vessels. And will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics; Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG.

EU regulatory agency Acer is taking on new tasks and challenges. Listen to a discussion on the complexities of supervising increasingly automated and interconnected markets, the expansion of the Remit framework, the regulatory body’s new investigatory powers and how it handles huge amounts of data.  In addition, what plans does Acer have to improve its brand recognition in parts of Europe where its role has been misunderstood?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Christian Zinglersen, Director, Acer

The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is intended to address the issue of carbon leakage - preventing companies moving to jurisdictions with less stringent emissions rules - and to keep industrial sectors in the EU competitive by charging a carbon levy at its borders. But the inclusion of electricity could trigger several unintended consequences. Listen to a discussion on how the law could significantly affect electricity flows between non-EU and EU countries and impact investment in renewable energy. Could the border tax actually hinder moves to decarbonise Europe?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Phil Hewitt, Director Montel Analytics; Jean-Paul Harreman, Director Montel Analytics.

After record low nuclear output in 2022, France has again become a powerhouse of atomic generation. So much so, that it is again Europe’s largest electricity exporter. Wholesale market prices in the country have tumbled amid ample supply, weak demand and high renewables, primarily solar, generation. Listen to a discussion on the outlook ahead of the summer, and the potential for surprises amid probes into possible corrosion at some reactors.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel News; Tasmin Chowdhary, Market Analyst, Volue. 

Europe may have weathered the worst of the storms of the covid pandemic and the energy crisis, but the continent’s gas market remains fragile. In this episode, we talk to the CEO of gas transit operator Snam and one of Italy’s most respected energy experts about the role gas will play for the country as it looks to wean itself off Russian gas. Italy looks set to become more dependent on the vagaries of global markets as it commits to an LNG future. And what is the outlook for gas demand among Italy’s industry?   Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Stefano Venier, CEO of Snam, Massimo Nicolazzi, University of Turin.

The pan-EU balancing mechanism Picasso has caused price turbulence after its introduction in some markets, notably Italy. The country has since exited the platform and other countries have delayed implementation to the mandatory system. Listen to a discussion on the problems experienced by Italy and proposals put forward to change the platform and to increase data transparency.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Simon Remppis, Engineer at TransnetBW; Alina Trabattoni, Italy Correspondent, Montel News. 

EU regulatory body Acer has proposed several changes to the framework of forward markets and cross-border trading, aimed at boosting power market liquidity. Listen to a discussion on virtual hubs, financial transmission rights or “spread futures” and why the Nordic model may not be the best example to follow. And, would dividing the German power zone attract more investment into green energy and increase liquidity?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Lion Hirth, Professor at Hertie School and Director at Neon Energy. 

Norway installed the least amount of renewables in the Nordic region last year. Ahead of the country’s first ever offshore wind auction, we talk to former energy minister Åslaug Haga about the outlook for new green energy in terms of meeting growing demand. Listen to a discussion on the ways in which country should speed up capacity build and why it is important to avoid the “ketchup effect”.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Åslaug Haga, Director, Renewables Norway.

European power purchase agreements (PPAs) look set for another bumper year with potential volume of 20 GW. However, there is some market hesitancy amid economic headwinds and flagging wholesale electricity prices. There is also a good chance for Germany to knock Spain off the top spot for PPA growth. Listen in!Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Luca Pedretti, Pexapark 

Over the past decade, Germany has experienced serious energy shocks – many of which were of its own making. For instance, the over-reliance on Russian gas and exiting coal and nuclear power at the same time. However, it has also provided solutions on a remarkable scale. Listen to a discussion  - recorded live at the E-World trade fair in Germany - on how the country dealt with its energy crisis, and the positive progress made since 2022. But how can it speed up investments into the grid as well as into renewables?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool, a Montel Group company;Hanns Koenig, Managing Director, Central Europe, Aurora Energy Research; Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

European Guarantee of Origin prices have slumped to near 15-month lows amid oversupply and faltering auctions. Listen to a discussion on the measures policy makers need to adopt to boost both transparency and liquidity in this opaque market. Will prices ever reach the highs of 2022 again?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Daniel Arnesson, Manager, Renewable Power Analysis

The prospect of Trump returning to the White House could shake up the global gas market already on edge from rising tensions in the Middle East. Listen to a discussion about how Trump could reverse President Biden’s pause to LNG projects. Also, the pod highlights why Chinese and German gas demand is returning close to pre-pandemic levels and what this means for imports to Europe as it continues to shun Russian supply.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director, Svelland Capital. 

Are oil and gas markets too complacent about the current geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which accounts for around one third of global seaborne oil trade? Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial thinks so. In this week's pod, he explains how an escalation of tensions beyond the Hamas-Irael war could see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and propel oil and LNG prices to USD 200/bbl and USD 100/MMbtu respectively – dwarfing the peaks during the 2022 energy crisis.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Saul Kavonic, Senior Research Analyst, MST Financial. 

For the first time in 17 years, Germany became a net electricity importer in 2023, largely due to expensive fossil fuels which meant power from its neighbours was cheaper than that domestically generated. Carbon emissions in the country also plummeted but is the drop permanent as the country looks to transform its power system? Listen to a discussion on the choices facing Germany and the pros and cons of splitting its single power market zone.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Fabian Huneke, Project Lead Energy Transition, Agora Energiewend

Europe’s net-zero targets for 2050 are ambitious, but the roll-out of renewable energy will not be successful without a significant boost to flexibility in power markets. Listen to a discussion on the prospects for batteries, both giga and household, in the energy transition and where the hotspots are in Europe. Could new technology such as sodium-ion be a game changer for energy storage?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sam Ebohon, Director Flexibility, Baringa Partners

Cross-border electricity cables are controversial. For some they provide supply security while others believe they increase prices in markets used to low energy costs. Listen to a discussion on the impact the power links had amid a period of extremely cold weather in the Nordic region. In addition, what is the outlook for wholesale prices in the coming weeks and months – could Finland see a return of EUR 800/MWh?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GEO; Odd Gunnar Jakobsen, Analyst, Volt Power Analytics.