Rational Perspective

Cyril Ramaphosa spent some time in New York last week, and while he was there, managed to insert his foot firmly in his mouth by denying that South Africa has a land grab crisis or any farm murders. It was a strange lapse for a careful politician and in this episode, Alec Hogg and Felicity Duncan dig into his strange statements and why he made them. They also talk about the ongoing scandal surrounding Tesla CEO Elon Musk and dig into the contentious nomination of sexual assault accused Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been an insane six weeks for South African-born-and-bred super entrepreneur Elon Musk. At about two o clock in the afternoon on Tuesday 7th August, while he was on an aeroplane, the boy from Pretoria launched one of the most expensive tweets of all time. Musk’s assertion that he would be taking Tesla Motor Company private at $420 a share with “funding secured”, sent the share price soaring before a collapse to the current $300 – a market value loss of $7bn from the pre-tweet level and $14bn from its immediate post-tweet peak. In a throwback to the golden age of news gathering when newspaper assigned specialised “watchers” to major companies, Bloomberg’s San Francisco-based business reporter Dana Hull is charged with focusing all her attention on Elon Musk, and his companies Tesla and SpaceX. Brad Stone is the best-selling author of a book on Amazon and its founder Jeff Bezos that resulted in the discovery of the man who fathered the world’s richest person. That was a New York Times bestseller. So was

In this episode, Alec Hogg and Felicity Duncan discuss the proposed SA stimulus package, asking whether it's going to spell Ramarecovery or Ramafailure. Cyril Ramaphosa has outlined a plan to boost investment in the hopes of reigniting growth and launching South Africa out of recession. Many questions, however, remain. Much depends on the specific projects and interventions that the government spends the money on. While the plan could help boost long-term growth potential, there are definite risks. They also delve into two mounting global crises: the widening US/China trade war and the rising possibility of a hard Brexit. Both of these threaten to worsen SA's economic situation at a moment when the country can ill-afford additional challenges. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Most analysts had discounted the prospect of a trade war between Donald Trump’s America and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Even when high level talks broke down in May, Trump’s threats were interpreted a massive bluff in a high stakes poker game. He believed China would back down, make the required reforms and the world could get back to business. Those hopes have now been dashed. The world awakes this morning to news that from next week roughly half the $500bn in goods which America imports annually from China will cost 10% more. And unless there’s breakthrough in the next three months, that tariff will jump to 25%. The end of the Trade War’s phoney stage is bad news for emerging markets like South Africa. For ten years developing countries have benefitted from tailwinds of Quantitative Easing and expansion of China’s economy. Those breezes have reversed with liquidity being sucked back out the system and the trade war sure to hurt Chinese economic growth. What the heck is Donald Trump thinking? That

JOHANNESBURG — In this podcast, Louisa Mvelo - who is the school principal of Khula Sizwe Primary School in Tembisa - tells us how the Partners for Possibility programme has helped completely transform and improve her school. It's an example of what can be done to vastly improve South Africa's creaking educational system. - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

JOHANNESBURG — Naspers' announcement that it intends to separately list and unbundle its video entertainment business as MultiChoice Group on the JSE has been seen as Naspers' first step in unlocking its stock discount in relation to its 31% Tencent stake. While Netflix and Amazon are starting to eat MultiChoice's lunch in South Africa, MultiChoice is still not a bad business by any stretch. For the year ended March, it generated revenues of R47.1bn and trading profits of R6.1 bn. In this teleconference call, Naspers CEO Bob van Dijk along with Naspers Video Entertainment CEO, Imtiaz Patel, explain the rationale for the unbundling. - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

JOHANNESBURG — It was just over a year ago, on 5 September 2017, that I interviewed Francis Ingham, the Director General of the PRCA. At that time, the PRCA had made the extraordinary decision to expel Bell Pottinger from the organisation amid the dodgy work it did for the Guptas. What followed thereafter was the complete collapse of Bell Pottinger, which lost clients at a blistering pace and which ultimately was put into administration. In many ways, the fall of Bell Pottinger was a bellwether for things to come as the Guptas' empire would come to crumble in SA while Jacob Zuma would ultimately be forced to resign as President. Now we have a Commission of Inquiry into State Capture - unthinkable just a year ago. It was therefore interesting to catch up again with Ingham on how the PRCA's decision impacted the UK PR industry and the backstory to personal threats that he received during what was a dramatic time. Take a listen. - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investec is splitting up into a London-based asset management business and a South Africa-based bank. It's an unusual move in a sector that prizes size and synergy, yet the share price has reacted favourably to the news. In this episode, Alec Hogg and Felicity Duncan dig into the Investec announcement and ask why it happened and why the markets seem to like it. They also discuss Apple's new product line and look at why South Africa is falling behind the rest of Africa in the investment race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s always special to visit with Peter Hain, the anti-apartheid icon who had a highly successful half century in British politics. Last time I watched him deliver a killer speech in the House of Lords which smashed any hopes the Guptas had of slinking away into the shadows. This time he hosted me in Royal Gallery, a grand room through which Elizabeth the Second passes en route to her official throne where she delivers the annual Queen’s Speech, the official opening of the British Parliament. Peter Hain, the boy from Pretoria, still can’t quite believe he’s a fully-fledged member of the historic House of Lords… Our conversation soon moved across Peter Hain’s superb book on his friend, South African leadership icon Nelson Mandela. I loved this punchy, well-written 196 pages on the man who changed his nation’s destiny. But with a veritable library of books on Madiba already available, I asked why Hain believed another was necessary, sparking a fascinating discourse on the concept of how best each of us can ma

JOHANNESBURG — Sable International has become known as the experts when it comes to moving your wealth (or yourself) offshore and taking advantage of the likes of Portugal's Golden Visa programme. But there's a statistic in this interview with Sable International's Andrew Rissik that stood out for me. Amid recent challenging economic and political uncertainties in South Africa, Sable International has experienced a 300% jump in enquiries. It's a phenomenal number and highlights just how many South Africans are feeling uneasy at home and looking to protect their wealth by moving it offshore. In this interview, Rissik explains some of the options available for those looking to make the leap. - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest update of RMB’s superbly researched Where to Invest in Africa listing arrives at an opportune time. Another Emerging Market crisis, sparked by ructions in Turkey and Argentina, is making it more important than ever for developing countries to differentiate themselves. Investors have become increasingly discerning – paying ever increasing attention to credible comparisons like RMB's table. Celeste Fauconnier is the editor of the easily digestible Where to Invest in Africa annual ranking of all 53 African countries. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

JOHANNESBURG — Amid the legendary Stephen Koseff stepping down officially from Investec on 1 October 2018, there's a group of executives about to move up the ranks at the financial institution. One of those executives is John Green who, come 1 October, will along with Mimi Ferrini be stepping up to be joint-CEO of Investec Asset Management. In turn, Hendrik du Toit, the current Investec Asset Management CEO, will take over from Stephen Koseff as joint CEO. The other joint CEO with du Toit will be Fani Titi. So, it was a great opportunity then to interview John Green this week on a new China-Africa agreement that Investec Asset Management has interestingly struck, as well as his views on the current state of the SA economy. - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Relocation to a new country is challenging. The decision itself is not easy. Even the most rational of beings find it difficult to overcome emotional aspects like the familiarity of people and places, the in-built understanding of how things work, and aversion for change that’s embedded in all of mankind. Economists have a term for this reluctance – they call it Home Bias. But sometimes circumstances prove too much for even those most deeply infected with such Home Bias. The fortunate get pulled by an irresistible need to expand their horizons, to pursue new opportunities. Others get pushed by things beyond their control. After decades of geographic and political isolation, economic and political change in South Africa has created uncertainty. That has sparked new lines of inquiry among formerly settled citizens, particularly those with internationally transportable skills. As much of South Africa’s national culture was shaped from centuries as a British colony, it’s little surprise the UK has, for many,

JOHANNESBURG — The situation for MTN in Nigeria continues to be fluid as the company indicated on Monday that it will be turning to the West African country's courts to fight $10bn in claims from the Nigerian government. Nigerian officials have accused MTN of illegally transferring $8.1 billion out of Nigeria and owing a further $2 billion in back taxes. MTN has disputed the claims. But this battle between MTN and the Nigerian government is nothing new. Back in 2015, MTN faced the world's biggest ever telecommunications fine of $5.2bn for allegedly selling unregistered SIMs - a fine that the country's regulators then dramatically drew back to around $1bn. Could this latest fight then be another case of high-stakes negotiating on the part of Nigerian authorities? Dobek Pater, from Africa Analysis, has been studying the African telecoms market for years and is an expert on what the situation on the ground is like in Nigeria. In this interview, Pater gives us a greater understanding of whether or not this is a s

With South Africa officially in recession, the government is talking up the possibility of a multi-billion rand stimulus package to restore growth. But how realistic is this? After all, the rand is weakening, the country is already carrying a heavy debt load, and tax revenues are falling. In this episode, Alec Hogg and Felicity Duncan discuss the constraints that the ANC-led government is ignoring and the global context for SA's capacity to stimulate the economy. While a stimulus package would be great, it just seems very unrealistic. They also look at events in Russia and reflect on how South Africa managed to avoid getting too far into bed with a dangerous foreign power. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I was first exposed to Bill Browder in 2006, at a hedge fund conference at Nice in the south of France. He was one of the star attractions, his Russia-focused Hermitage Fund, hailed as the best performing money fund in the world. Confident, brash, outspoken, Browder was riding a wave of the best kind of popularity - the adoration of your peers. The Bill Browder I met with in London this week was rather different. Self-contained, professional to the point of being a little guarded. Which is hardly surprising. Browder has been through the mill and back in the dozen years since I last saw him. And the change is good. The over-riding sense is of that most rare of our species - a man who is on purpose. In 2009, Browder’s life changed when his Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was jailed on trumped up charges, and when he refused to break after 11 months of torture, was beaten to death. As you’ll hear in what follows, that put Browder jumped onto a different path. One which accelerated in 2015 with the publication

JOHANNESBURG — Yoco, the makers of a card reader device that connects with a merchant’s smartphone or tablet, has raised a Series B round of US$16m (R230m) led by Partech, a venture capital firm based in Silicon Valley and including the likes of South African-based Futuregrowth. Yoco is a fascinating local business as it only started in 2015 but has managed to grow its base to over 27 000 South African small businesses, 75% of which had never accepted cards previously. In this interview with Amrish Narrandes, an investment analyst at Futuregrowth, and Carl Wazen, who is the co-founder of sale payments provider Yoco; the pair tell us all about the latest capital raising round. - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

JOHANNESBURG — The Chief Investment Office of Futuregrowth, Andrew Canter, was in the spotlight in 2016 when the fund manager took the unprecedented step of halting lending to six major SOEs. After reviewing these SOEs and conducting further reviews, Futuregrowth cleared some of them. Earlier this year, Futuregrowth also made the news again when it released a report entitled ‘SOE Governance Unmasked’, in which it decried the lack of transparency at SOEs in South Africa, especially for those companies with listed bonds. In this interview then, Canter provides updates on these two previous developments as well as his views on why he's still positive about South Africa, despite a current technical recession and a weak rand. (I apologise for some small parts of the audio where my dog can be heard barking in the background. The interview is so good that I couldn't cut it out!) - Gareth van Zyl See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I’ve always been a huge fan of my former colleague Chris Steyn, having seen close up how she has always made exposing the truth her only priority, regularly speaking out against the powerful on behalf of those without a voice. Much has happened in the few weeks since the publication of the best-seller, most dramatically the suicide last month of her co-author Mark Minnie. Chris has also been the subject of sustained attacks by some of Afrikanerdom’s formerly powerful figures, including a scathing accusation by an Apartheid police general that she and Minnie made it all up. Lost Boys of Bird Island hit the South African book reading market like a hurricane, evoking strong emotions both ways. Since its publication, social media has been buzzing non-stop and Afrikaans Sunday newspaper Rapport has devoted hundreds of column centimetres to both sides…Much of the debate being focused on the naming of two Apartheid cabinet ministers, particularly the once all-powerful former Minister of Defence Magnus Malan – a man

The rand is officially slumping and it looks like the fall could continue as emerging markets currencies remain under fire. What is a South African to do in such an environment? Well, the biggest trick is investing offshore, hedging against the rand with dollar, euro, or pound investments. Alec Hogg and Felicity Duncan discuss how the falling rand has boosted the Biznews Global Portfolio and how offshore diversification can help South African investors stay on top even when the rand hits bottom. They also catch up on the Reinert share buyback and talk about Alec Hogg's upcoming interview with Lost Boys of Bird Island co-author Chris Steyn. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.