Odd Lots

It's been 10 years since the start of the credit crunch that eventually led to the global financial crisis. For many investors, the events of 2007 to 2008 shook their entire understanding of how markets are meant to work. In this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast we speak to Mark Dow, a global macro trader and financial blogger, as well as a former economist at the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund.He walks us through some of the most important lessons that investors should have learned from the crisis, including why central bank stimulus efforts haven't had as much of an effect on the real economy, and why oil matters much less to the world than it once did. We also take a brief interlude to learn how a macro manager analyzes U.S. jobs numbers as they come out.

We use money everyday, but it's rare to actually think about what money is or what it represents. And in fact many of the people who are the closest to it -- academics, traders, etc. -- understand it the least. On this week's episode of Odd Lots, we talk to Lana Swartz, an Assistant Professor at the University of Virgnia in the department of media studies. We discuss why money can be understood as a form of media, and specifically we talk about her work on Diner's Club, the original charge card.

Most people have some kind of hazy conception of how the stock market works. Stocks are simple to understand, and there are only so many of them out there to trade. But the bond market is a whole different beast, and in some ways it remains way behind stocks in terms of how technology has changed the industry. On this weeks' Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Bloomberg's Rob Elson, a former trader, who spent decades in the industry. During our conversation, he talks about how he got into the business, how his job changed from the early days to its end, and what he learned about what it takes to succeed in trading.

We talk a lot on Odd Lots about the idea of investing. But what's it like to actually have to put money to work in some of the trickiest investing environments in history? David Schawel was an equity analyst who suddenly became the manager of a portfolio of subprime mortgage bonds during the worst of the credit crunch. Now he manages fixed-income portfolios for New River Investments. We talk to him about what it was like to manage a subprime portfolio back in 2008, the differences between stocks and bonds, and how to put money to work when lots of people are talking about an overvalued market. 

Financial markets around the world are stuck in a long period of low volatility and boredom. But one pocket is seeing some wild action -- grains. Spring wheat (a form of high-protein wheat grown in the northern Midwest) has been on a tear, alongside action in soy and corn. What explains the whipsaw? Joe and Tracy speak with Tommy Grisafi, a longtime trader who works as a risk manager at Advance Trading, a firm that helps farmers take advantage of financial markets. Grisafi walks us through the history of the market, how technology is dramatically changing things and why things have suddenly gotten so darn volatile.

It's no secret that a lot of people in finance like to bet on things. But how many of them take the time to actually beat the house in gambling? On this week's Odd Lots, we talk to Joe Peta, a former Lehman Brothers trader, and the author of "Trading Bases," a book about betting on baseball. Peta started focusing on baseball after a freak accident (getting hit by an ambulance) gave him lots of time to think about applying his trading knowledge to baseball. Eventually he launched a $1 million baseball betting fund that returned 14 percent in a year to his investors. On this episode, Peta talks to us about why baseball is uniquely suited to data analytics, how he was able to exploit market inefficiencies, and what sports betting can teach us about market structure.

Earlier this month, Dana Gas, a UAE-based company, rocked the world of Islamic finance by announcing that one of its Shariah-compliant bonds was, well, no longer Shariah-compliant. On this week's episode of Odd Lots, we speak to veteran Dubai-based journalist Frank Kane about the rise of Islamic finance (what it is, how it works, why it's grown so fast) and why the Dana Gas announcement is such a big deal.

On the TV show "Billions," one of the most important characters is Wendy Rhoades, the psychologist at Axe Capital who helps traders get out of their slumps. What viewers may not realize is that the job exists in real life. On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Brett Steenbarger, a professor at SUNY Upstate Medical University and author of several books on trading psychology. Steenbarger, who has worked with several funds, explains to us what he actually with traders and how is work is similar to and different from the fictional TV character.

By now everyone's heard of Bitcoin, and probably has an opinion on it. But the world of cryptocurrencies has a new object of fascination: ICOs. Whereas the tech boom in the 90s was characterized by an obsession with IPOs, these ICOs (initial coin offerings) are cryptographic tokens being sold onto the market for hungry investors eager to get in on new ventures. And while some ICOs are connected to companies, others are connected to "protocols" that aren't even recognizably corporations. Confused? You're not alone. On this week's episode, we talk to Chris Burniske of asset management company Ark Invest to talk about this fascinating new world.

America has had many well-known booms and busts in its history: Real estate, internet stocks, Beanie Babies... too many to list. But did you know there was once a catfish gold rush? Yep, starting in the 1970s, farmers in the south, in states like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Arkansas started devoting thousands of acres to catfish farming in the hopes that catfish would become America's next great white meat. Joining us on this week's Odd Lots is Mike McCall, the editor of the Catfish Journal, and the author of "Catfish Days: From Belzoni To The Big Apple," to talk about how the boom happened and why it eventually collapsed.

For the past few years, everyone in markets has been talking about nothing. Market moves have been subdued and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, recently sank to its lowest in about three decades. We speak with Pravit Chintawongvanich, head of derivatives strategy at Macro Risk Advisors and an expert in volatility. He explains what the VIX actually measures, why it's so low, and how betting against sharp moves in the market became one of the hottest and most lucrative trades around. We also talk about "50 Cent." That's not the rapper, but the mystery buyer who's been bucking wider trend and buying volatility protection at a consistent clip.

Phil Hellmuth is one of poker's biggest stars. His success is undeniable, as he's won 14 bracelets at the World Series of Poker, more than anyone else. And his outsize personality at the table has earned him the nickname "The Poker Brat." But while Hellmuth may be known for his outbursts and colorful behavior, he's actually one of the most disciplined players the game has ever seen. On this week's Odd Lots, Phil explains how he manages risk, how he avoids going on "tilt," how he prepares for big tournaments and how he keeps a fundamentally optimistic outlook on life. He also offers three simple words of advice for everyone who trades.

It's no secret that international trade has been criticized lately. But why exactly are countries generally happy to trade within their borders -- from one state or town to another, for example -- but more reluctant to trade across international ones? And why are countries so focused on making things domestically? On this edition of the Odd Lots podcast we speak to an over-achiever in the field of economics who specializes in trade and is known for rigorous research that has included poring over railway records from the British Raj era in India. Dave Donaldson is the most recent recipient of the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal awarded to economists under the age of 40. He speaks about what he learned from studying trade across history and what exactly it has to offer in modern times.

Avocado toast, unicorn frappuccinos, and kale salads. Taking photos of your food and putting them on Instagram is a now a huge trend that's transforming markets in more ways than one. In this edition of the Odd Lots podcast we talk about how photogenic foods are impacting commodities prices, and how the retail market is actively courting Instagram 'influencers' who can promote their business. We speak with Amanda Topper, a food blogger who works as associate director of foodservice research at Mintel, as well as Julie Verhage, a Bloomberg reporter who's written about the impact of Instagram on commodities prices.

When you think about the Middle East what springs to mind? Perhaps oil, maybe political instability, terrorism or even war. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast we speak to someone who's trying to tackle the region's biggest issues in new and creative ways. Emad Mostaque is the co-chief investment officer of Capricorn Fund Managers Ltd. and a long-time specialist in Gulf markets who successfully predicted the collapse in oil prices that's currently causing a headache for many Middle Eastern economies. He talks about his proposal to give OPEC a brand new tool to control the crude market in the face of rising U.S. production, as well as a new project to use big data and technology to fight Islamic extremism and help Syrian refugees find jobs.

On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Hikaru Nakamura, one of the best chess players in the world. Currently ranking in the top seven, Nakamura achieved grandmaster status at a younger age than Bobby Fischer did. These days in addition to chess, Nakamura actively trades options, and on this episode he talks about the similarities and differences between the two pursuits. We also talked about poker, what it takes to be a pro chess player, and how computers and artificial intelligence are changing everything.

When most people analyze the stock market, they look at stuff like revenues, earnings, valuations, and economic conditions. But some people like to look at the Billboard music charts or what kinds of films are popular at any given moment. On this week's Odd Lots, we talk to Matt Lampert, the director of research at the Socionomics Institute, which attempts to analyze the market by looking at the nation's social mood. And there's no better way to examine society's mood than by looking at pop culture. Are horror movies in vogue? Are people listening to upbeat pop songs? Each of these things, according to Lampert, can offer a clue about the state of the nation and therefore which way the market will go next.

What if you woke up tomorrow and found the U.S. stock market was closed for good? That happened to investors in the Russian market after the communist revolution in 1917, leading to huge losses for people who had put their money in what was then one of the major economic and political powers in the world. The Russian example was brought up last month by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who sounded the alarm over the rise of populism and its impact on markets. In this edition of the Odd Lots podcast, we pick up the theme with Simon Hinrichsen, assistant portfolio manager at First State Investments, and guest co-host Sid Verma of Bloomberg News. We discuss how investors can prepare for the very worst. Along the way, we ask whether the dominant forces in markets today -- powerful countries, institutions and investment theories, such as the relationship between bonds and stocks -- can survive forever.

History, as you may have heard, has a tendency to repeat. But does it repeat in ways that are measurable and predictable? We speak with Peter Borish, a veteran investor and trader who is currently chief strategist at the Quad Group. His experience reaches back three decades to when he worked for the legendary Paul Tudor Jones in 1985. Throughout his career, Borish has studied cycles, looking for patterns in data and human behavior, to help him anticipate turning points in markets and the economy. He talks about his approach, the use of data, how trading has changed over the course of his career -- and of course, what he thinks about the market right now.

One of the most fascinating market phenomenons is the bubble. When they occur, fortunes are made and lost, and the full spectrum of human emotions, from fear to greed, are on display. But what defines a bubble exactly, and how do you know when you're actually seeing one? This week on Odd Lots, we speak with Harvard Business School economist Robin Greenwood, who has figured out the key characteristics that all stock market bubbles have in common.