Odd Lots

When it comes to millennials, the media has certain tropes that it likes to go back to. Millennials love avocados. Millennials aren't into homebuying. Millennials are always killing off this or that product or service. But what if the consumption lens is the totally wrong way to talk about this generation? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Malcolm Harris, the author of "Kids These Days: Human Capital and the Making of Millennials," about what he says is a more useful frame for understanding the economic stresses millennials face.

We've been nominated for a Webby Award in the business podcast category, and we need the support of our listeners to help us win. Go online to https://www.webbyawards.com/ and vote now. And thanks for listening!

By now, everyone's heard of ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) where companies issue their own currency-like tokens. They boomed massively in 2017, alongside the whole cryptocurrency craze. But very few people really get what they are, and how they fit into the regulatory landscape. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Peter van Valkenburgh, the director of research at Coin Center, who explains why you have to go back to a 1946 case involving a Florida orange grower to understand how regulators see these newfangled financial instruments. 

Recent threats to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, coupled with China's own retaliatory announcements have raised the prospects of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. But what is a trade war, and what would be the economic ramifications if there were one? Brad Setser, the Steven A. Tananbaum senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins us on this week’s Odd Lots to help answer those questions. Brad has been writing about trade issues for many years, and explains what exactly we're seeing now, how the current trade actions differ from standard moves on trade, and where ultimately all these actions might go. 

A lot of people would probably agree that there's something wrong with much of the traditional advice in how to lose weight -- or at least how it's implemented. The economist Miles Kimball has lost weight using a different approach. He's increased his fat intake and gone for long stretches of time without eating anything at all. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, Kimball, a prolific blogger and professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, explains what got him interested in fasting, obesity research, and the similarities between weight loss and fighting inflation. 

Remember LIBOR? The London Interbank Offered Rate measures the cost of money when banks borrow from each other. It famously blew out during the financial crisis, but for a long time since then it's been dormant. Only lately it's started to creep higher again. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Scott Peng, the founder, CEO and CIO of Advocate Capital Management, who warned in early 2008 that there was something fishy about the way the measure was being priced. In the post-crisis period, it was discovered that the rate -- which helps price trillions of dollars worth of other assets -- was being gamed or manipulated by traders. Peng walks us through the history of the rate, what it's telling us now, and what may ultimately replace it. 

These days, when you think of trading, you think of people sitting at a desk with a bunch of monitors, watching charts, and maybe making decisions based on algorithmic signals. Of course if you imagine a trader a few decades ago, you think of someone in a big open pit shouting loudly and writing things down on actual physical pieces of paper. So what was that scene really like? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Cameron Crise, a Bloomberg macro strategist, who used to trade currency options in the pits in Chicago during the early 1990s. We talk about how he got there, some of the funniest moments he experienced, and how the trading world has evolved since then. 

For years, nobody seemed particularly concerned about inflation. Outside of a few blips, in the wake of the financial crisis, people have become accustomed to low inflation, and central banks providing ample stimulus to the economy. But suddenly that's changing. There seem to be hints that the macro backdrop is shifting, and that has investors on edge. So why the shift and what's going on? On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Michael Ashton of Enduring Investments, a specialist in analyzing the inflation data, and helping clients trade on it. He offers his theory of what drives inflation, and where it's going to go next.

In theory, people should want to know accurate facts about the state of the world. In practice, it's not so simple. Because of the way we evolved, and how our brains work, there are often things that we prioritize above the truth (such as fitting in with some tribal identity). On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with NYU professor Jay Van Bavel, about a new paper he co-authored titled "The Partisan Brain: An Identity-Based Model of Political Belief." It explains how political ideology leads people to have distorted views of the world, and though this paper is specifically about politics, it contains important lessons for people in the market, as they seek to overcome the biases that make them bad traders and investors. 

Decrypted returns on March 6th with a brand new season. Here's a sneak peek of what's in store. We'll be releasing new episodes every Tuesday starting next week. 

In the 1970s, NYC teetered on the verge of bankruptcy. This crisis lead to the dismantling of the city's generous social safety net. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Kim Phillips-Fein, historian and author of "Fear City: New York's Fiscal Crisis and the Rise of Austerity Politics." She walks us through what happened then, and what lessons it holds for fiscal politics today.  

In recent years, one of the easiest ways to make money in this market has been to bet on low volatility. Up until recently, markets have been exceptionally tranquil, and trades predicated on that tranquility continuing have made a fortune. But two of the most popular vehicles for making that trade, XIV and SVXY got obliterated in one day in early February. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Pravit Chintawongvanich, the head of Derivatives Strategy at Macro Risk Advisors about the episode. He explains what the short volatility trade was, how specifically these funds operated, and how they ultimately became victims of their own success. 

This month, Bloomberg is excited to bring you a brand new show. Every Friday on What'd You Miss This Week, we'll feature the most interesting interviews from Bloomberg's daily market close show, "What'd You Miss" hosted by Scarlet Fu, Julia Chatterley and Joe Weisenthal. We want to take you beyond the headlines and bring you a unique perspective on the week's top stories, and those you may just have missed. It's the perfect way to kick off your weekend. Be sure to subscribe now, so you don't miss a thing!

Anyone who watched poker on TV during the golden age of coverage a few years ago is familiar with Annie Duke. She's one of the most famous poker players of the era, and is one of the winningest women poker players of all time, with 38 money finishes at the World Series of Poker. She's been retired from poker for a few years now, but she has a new book called "Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All The Facts." On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Annie talks about the skills that made her good in poker, and how they can be applied to many areas of our lives, including trading and business.

Quantitative finance is red hot. These days, basically everyone (banks, hedge funds etc.) is hiring mathematicians and coders. So what differentiates one quant shop from any other? On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Alfred Spector, the CTO of Two Sigma Investments, which is one of the most successful quant firms in the world. Spector is a computer scientist who previously did long stints at both Google and IBM. He tells us about why Two Sigma spent resources to create its own video game, and what the firm does to ensure that technologists and mathematicians are eager to work there.

If you cover the economy from New York City or Abu Dhabi, it's easy to get caught up in a media bubble. But the U.S. economy is obviously not a monolith. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Jeff Korzenik, the Chief Investment Strategist at Fifth Third Private bank, a major bank in the Midwestern states. During our discussion, we talk about the ramifications from the opioid crisis as well as the Trump administration on the economy and the markets.

When we think about financial assets, we usually think of their price as being derived from some set of intrinsic characteristics. A stock price may be a function of growth, margins, interest rates, and a few other things. For government bonds, we might say that inflation and growth are the big components. It's easy to forget that financial assets are goods sold on a market consisting of humans with their own demand and consumption needs. On this week's Odd Lots, we speak to Amlan Roy, Global Chief Retirement Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, about how radical changes to demographics all over the world has changed the supply and demand framework for financial assets, and thus the price of government bonds.

For centuries, markets were highly-personalized things, often controlled by select groups of people who traded based on long-established and closely-knit relationships. Closed networks -- such as merchant guilds in 16th century Europe -- could ensure trust between buyers and sellers by pushing out bad actors. But then, something happened that would eventually become the foundation of all modern markets. In the 1500s, new trade routes and the arrival of the printing press helped erode the power of merchant guilds and give way to a much more open system of trading where strangers could interact with each other.  On this edition of the Odd Lots podcast, Prateek Raj gives his theory about why modern markets first took hold in Northern Europe, and what this 500-year-old period of disruption can tell us about the world today.  

We talk a lot about bubbles on this podcast. Often we talk about them from the perspective of a trader or speculator. But what about the people whose lives get caught up directly in the craziness? On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Bloomberg's own Dash Bennett, who worked for an internet company right during the peak of the mania in early 2000. Dash describes the incredible signs of excesses that he saw at the beginning and the bleak way it all ended when everyone lost their jobs and had all their perks taken away.

On last week's episode of Odd Lots, Bloomberg's Chris Nagi and Matt Boesler gave us their takes for the biggest stories of the past year. So naturally, for this week's episode, we look ahead. Chris and Matt are back in the studio to give us their predictions for what we'll be talking about in 2018.