The Lowy Institute

On Tuesday 12 November our Lowy Institute experts and senior investment leaders discussed key geopolitical risks and trends, and the impacts on financial markets and investment portfolios.‍Rising geopolitical tensions are testing the resilience of global businesses and challenging existing growth strategies.  Conflict in Europe and the Middle East and escalating US–China competition have the attention of business leaders. Moreover, 2024 is the year of national elections, with more than 60 countries and nearly 50 percent of the global population heading to the polls. Business leaders increasingly see geopolitics as a major risk to global growth and view political transitions as the leading emergent risk.‍Our panellists considered major paradigm shifts including inflation regimes, climate and decarbonisation, technology disruption, populism, deglobalisation and changing asset class correlations. They also discussed the consequences of these shifts for Australia, Asia and the world.‍Sam Roggeveen will convene th

Less than a week after Donald Trump’s historic election victory, world experts gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, the UN’s annual summit on climate change. The Hon Chris Bowen MP, Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, holds a central role at this year’s summit, as co-chair of negotiations on a new global climate finance goal. He speaks to the Lowy Institute’s Ryan Neelam about global climate action in the age of Trump, Australia’s climate ambitions, and the challenges facing the world in a new, more turbulent era of geopolitics. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A wide-ranging conversation with The Economist’s defence editor, Shashank Joshi, which will cover the Ukraine war, the Middle East, China’s nuclear ambitions, tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the implications of the US presidential election for international security, and much more, including questions from the audience. Shashank Joshi is The Economist’s defence editor. Previously, he served as Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Research Associate at Oxford University’s Changing Character of War program. He has published books on Iran’s nuclear program and India’s armed forces, written for a wide range of newspapers and journals, and appeared regularly on radio and television. Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, hosted the conversation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we explore what might happen at COP29, the upcoming UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. With global emissions at record highs and climate impacts intensifying, this year’s conference will focus on setting a new climate finance goal to drive global climate action. The Lowy Institute’s Alexandre Dayant is joined by Indo-Pacific Development Centre climate experts Dr Melanie Pill and Georgia Hammersley, who will be hosting side events at the Pacific and Australian pavilions at COP29, as well as Ryan Neelam, Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Institute. Together, they dive into key issues on the agenda, potential sticking points, the global context, and what COP29 might mean for the future of global climate action.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute's Dr Michael Fullilove and Hervé Lemahieu discuss Donald Trump's remarkable political comeback. What will a second Trump presidency mean for America's allies, adversaries, and the fence-sitters? And how should Australia deal with Mr Trump in the Oval Office? You can also read our special feature on Trump 2.0, as well as Dr Fullilove’s essay for The Atlantic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the eve of the US election, Lowy Institute experts review the culmination of a tumultuous 2024 presidential election season.  Michael Fullilove, Ryan Neelam, Richard McGregor and Susannah Patton examine the beliefs and policies that animate both presidential contenders – Kalama Harris and Donald Trump – and their teams of advisors.  They also discuss the consequences of this election for Asia and the world.vSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Democracies around the world are being challenged by socio-economic pressures, rising inequalities, and rapid technological developments, as well as growing polarisation and diminishing trust in institutions. Safeguarding democracy by addressing these challenges has become a national priority, but it also has clear geopolitical implications for Australia and its democratic allies. With non-democratic powers such as China and Russia acting to blunt the influence of the international rules-based order, the health of democracies will play a significant role in the future of this order and its institutions.An in-person conversation with the head of Australia’s Strengthening Democracy Taskforce, Dr Jeni Whalan, to discuss how Australia fares in terms of the broader global trends impacting democracies and what renewing democracy at home means in an era of geopolitical competition.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On 10 October 2024 we launched the 2024 Asia Power Index, the Lowy Institute’s annual assessment of the distribution of power among 27 countries in Asia.   In Asia, a battle of narratives rages. Many believe China is already an unassailably dominant force, while US primacists see it as weak, vulnerable and ultimately containable. Still others, including US allies such as Australia and Japan, tout the emergence of a multipolar Indo-Pacific that could arrest China’s ambitions for regional hegemony.  What do the findings of the Asia Power Index say about these prevailing narratives? And what role can third countries play in Asia’s power politics and in its regional order?  Professor Hugh White AO is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.  Susannah Patton is Director of the Southeast Asia Program and Project Lead for the Asia Power Index at the Lowy Institute.  Hervé Lemahieu is Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.   Chaired by Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for Eas

Eighty years ago, the Bretton Woods agreement shaped the global financial system to build a better world. While its institutions remain vital, they are struggling to meet today’s challenges — climate change, economic insecurity, and a multi-trillion-dollar development financing gap. In this podcast, Lowy Institute researchers Alexandre Dayant, Michelle Lyons and Roland Rajah explore the proposal for an Indo-Pacific Economic Resilience Bank (IERB) — a bank that will aim to diversify critical supply chains, reduce China’s dominance in clean energy, and mobilise new capital for the clean energy transition in the Indo-Pacific. Read and download the Lowy Institute Analysis The case for an Indo-Pacific Economic Resilience Bank by Michelle Lyons, Roland Rajah and Grace Stanhope.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Asia, a battle of narratives rages. Many believe China is already an unassailably dominant force, while US primacists see it as ultimately containable. In either case, bipolarity is the order of the day. However, countries such as Australia and Japan tout the emergence of a multipolar Indo-Pacific. What do the findings of the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index say about these prevailing narratives? And what role can third countries play in Asia’s power politics and in its regional order? Dr Michael Green joined the Lowy Institute’s Susannah Patton and Hervé Lemahieu to debate the findings of the 2024 Asia Power Index.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sean Turnell's new Lowy Institute Paper, Best Laid Plans, was officially launched by Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong at an event at the National Press Club in Canberra, on Monday 14 October 2024. The new book offers a unique first-hand account of the radical reforms implemented in Myanmar under the ill-fated civilian government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. These reforms, designed both to turn around Myanmar’s dire economy and lay the economic foundations for democracy, were brought to a dramatic end following the military coup in February 2021. Sean Turnell was one of Suu Kyi’s key economic advisers who was imprisoned alongside her in the wake of the coup.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hostage-taking and arbitrary detention by both state and non-state actors are on the rise. The Lowy Institute’s Sean Turnell, himself wrongfully imprisoned for two years in Myanmar, and Lydia Khalil discuss hostage diplomacy, its personal and global impacts and what can be done about it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the United States approaches a pivotal presidential election in November, populism is on the rise and key tenets of American democracy are being tested. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is preparing for two very different versions of the superpower. ‍Dr Michael Dimock, the President of Pew Research Center, joins the Lowy Institute's Ryan Neelam and Lydia Khalil to discuss the upcoming presidential election, the state of democracy, and the role of public opinion in US and global politics.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With less than a month to go before one of the most consequential presidential elections in US history, Lowy Institute experts Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu and Sam Roggeveen sit down to discuss what a potential Trump or Harris administration would mean for the United States and its relationships with allies and adversaries. Drawing on two recently published Lowy Institute interactive features in which Institute experts assess the policies, outlooks and approach to the world of the candidates, they unpack what two very different yet similarly enigmatic candidates would bring to the world stage. You can read more here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The soundness of military strategy and the nimbleness with which strategy can adapt to unforeseen circumstances are the two most important factors in deciding victory or defeat. This is the clearest lesson to emerge from the Ukraine war, argues Mick Ryan, one of the most quoted and influential military experts on the conflict.‍We heard from Mick about the ongoing war in Ukraine and his new book in a conversation hosted by the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen, which included questions from the audience.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we delve into the United Nations Loss and Damage Fund, the most concrete effort to address restitution for those impacted by climate change. As the recently appointed board begins crafting a global fund to financially support climate victims, much remains unresolved, including complex questions about who is eligible for money and how they can access it, how to quantify intangible impacts such as the loss of traditional knowledge, and how the Fund itself can raise enough resources to cover escalating costs. To explore these questions, Alexandre Dayant, Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with IPDC climate experts Dr Melanie Pill and Georgia Hammersley, who recently authored a Lowy Institute Policy Brief outlining recommendations for the Fund’s structure. You can access the Policy Brief here: A climate loss and damage fund that worksSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monday 16 September 2024‍Indonesia is in the countdown to the October presidential transition from Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to Prabowo Subianto, who won a decisive victory in the April presidential election. Hugely ambitious and popular, Jokowi leaves a complex legacy, including strained democratic institutions, the politicisation of the police and military, and an at times transactional foreign policy that benefited China’s standing.The panel drew on perspectives presented at the 2024 Australian National University Indonesia Update conference to explore the legacy of Jokowi’s presidency and the direction that Prabowo may now seek to steer Indonesia.Eve Warburton is a senior lecturer at the Department of Political and Social Change in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, and Director of ANU's Indonesia Institute at the College of Asia and the Pacific. Her research is concerned broadly with problems of representation, governance, and business-state relations, in young and developing democracies, with a r

Each year, the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index (API) provides the authoritative guide to the distribution of power in Asia. In the first of a three part series on the API, index authors Susannah Patton, Jack Sato and Hervé Lemahieu discuss the findings of the latest edition, including the outlook for US-China competition, the relative influence of India and Japan, and how other regional countries fare overall. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dmitri Alperovitch is the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. In this Lowy Institute Conversation, he talks with Sam Roggeveen about China’s ambitions, why Taiwan is so important, the military balance in Asia, and much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dmitri Alperovitch is the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. In this Lowy Institute Conversation, he talks with Sam Roggeveen about China’s ambitions, why Taiwan is so important, the military balance in Asia, and much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.